Gold surges, equities fall as risk aversion picks up!

• Markets yesterday traded with caution once again with the US equity markets finishing the session below -1.15% and gold approached last month’s record highs to $1245. The VIX, a gauge of fear, traded above 3% to 36.6 as the overall market uncertainty as to developments in Europe and US economic recovery are causing many market participants to purchase insurance in the form of options against future adverse movements in most assets. The only economic data released out of the US on the day was the consumer credit report which showed an increase of $1 bio. We also heard some comments from soon to be Federal Reserve Vice Chairman Janet Yellen saying that ”significant; headwinds to stability remain”. USDJPY price action yesterday was between 91.00 – 92.07.
• In Europe we saw continuous declines in equity and currency markets following the previous days shocking comments from Hungarian officials about the possibility of default. From the financial calendar we had a much stronger than expected factory orders report jumping 2.8% for the month as well as a successful bond auction by the Dutch and Belgian treasury.  This shows that the market still segregates between Northern and Southern countries and that Northern EU members have not experienced any significant rise in the cost of financing their debt. EURUSD price action yesterday was between 1.1991 – 1.1875.

Currency to watch out for: EURUSD & USDJPY

• § The EURUSD pivot point is at 1.1990 with a preference to enter into Short positions at 1.1980
• § The USDJPY pivot point is at 91.85 with a preference to enter Short positions at 91.80

Today’s calendar and market movers:

• § Germany Industrial Output for the month of April expected at 0.8%
• § Canada Housing Starts for May expected at 200K
• § US Redbook for the week, previous months reading was 0.3%

Equity Markets:

• US equities closed negative yesterday with the S&P500 down by -1.35% and the DJIA down by -1.16%. The European bourses were negative yesterday with the FTSE down -1.11% the DAX and the CAC closing at -0.57% and -1.21%. The NIKKEI and the HSI at the time of writing is 0.18% and 0.35% respectively.

Source: Easy Forex

Recommended Forex Brokers: AvaFX and Forex Yard

CURRENCY TRADING SUMMARY – 5th April (00:30GMT)

U.S. Dollar Trading (USD) was broadly stronger in thin trading after the March Jobs report showed +162k new jobs and solid revisions in February and January. The March Unemployment Rate was steady at 9.7%. USD/JPY ticked higher into the Y94 region but ran out of steam above the Y94.60. EUR/USD slipped below 1.3500 before steadying into the close. US stocks were closed. Looking ahead, March ISM Services forecast at 54 vs. 53 previously. Looking ahead, February Pending Home Sales are forecast at 0.6% vs. -7.6% previously.

The Euro (EUR) the Strong USD after the Jobs data was the only move on Note on Easter Friday with support under the 1.3500 tested and holding. EUR/GBP continued to be pressured at the 0.8880 support with many feeling it is only a matter of time before the level breaks down. Next support of note is at the 0.8812. Overall the EUR/USD traded with a low of 1.3475 and a high of 1.3591 before closing at 1.3495. Looking ahead, Bank Holiday in Europe.

The Japanese Yen (JPY) the rally continued on the USD/JPY closing in the mid Y94 region as the market continues to push US Treasury Yields higher and Global stocks rally. AUD/JPY pushed Y97 and GBP/JPY tested Y144 as the risk currencies outperform. Overall the USDJPY traded with a low of 93.66 and a high of 94.69 before closing the day around 94.63 in the New York session.

The Sterling (GBP) bowed to the broad USD strength but held up better than most currencies as the Pound rally remains intact and risk appetite strong. Gains against the Euro and Yen continued and further gains are likely given the relatively low base from which the rally started. Overall the GBP/USD traded with a low of 1.5183 and a high of 1.5296 before closing the day at 1.5192 in the New York session.

The Australian Dollar (AUD) held close to the 0.9200 level as AUD/JPY buying countered USD strength after the NFP data. Strong Gold and Oil are underpinning the Aussie’s strength along with the RBA rate hike possibility on Tuesday. AUD/NZD is holding above 1.3000 nicely and could resume its recent uptrend. Overall the AUD/USD traded with a low of 0.9184 and a high of 0.9214 before closing the US session at 0.9187.

Oil & Gold (XAU) traded in a tight range above $1120 for the majority of the day. Overall trading with a low of USD$1117 and high of USD$1127 before ending the New York session at USD$1120 an ounce. Crude Oil was Closed for trading on Easter Friday.

TECHNICAL COMMENTARY

Currency	Sup 2	Sup 1	Spot	Res 1	Res 2
EUR/USD	1.3247	1.3270	1.3530	1.3591	1.3608
USD/JPY	91.09	91.77	94.40	94.64	95.10
GBP/USD	1.4784	1.4975	1.5270	1.5327	1.5382
AUD/USD	0.8936	0.8978	0.9215	0.9216	0.9250
XAU/USD	1085.00	1102	1126.00	1133	1145.00
OIL/USD	83.80	85	85.80	86	88.00

Euro – 1.3530

Initial support at 1.3270 (March 26 low) followed by 1.3247 (May 6 low). Initial resistance is now located at 1.3591 (April 1 high) followed by 1.3608 (0.618 of 1.3818-1.3268)

Yen – 94.40

Initial support is located at 91.77 (Mar 25 low) followed by 91.09 (Mar 24 low). Initial resistance is now at 94.64 (Aug 25 high) followed by 95.1 (0.618 of 101.44-84.83).

Pound – 1.5270

Initial support at 1.4975 (Mar 30 low) followed by 1.4784 (Ma low). Initial resistance is now at 1.5327 (Mar 31 high) followed by 1.5382 (Mar 19 high).

Australian Dollar – 0.9215

Initial support at 0.8978 (Mar 4 low) followed by the 0.8936 (Mar 1 low). Initial resistance is now at 0.9216 (Mar 30 high) followed by 0.9250 (March 17 high).

Gold – 1126

Initial support at 1085 (Mar 24 low) followed by 1078 (Feb 12 low). Initial resistance is now at 1118 (Mar 31 high) followed by 1133 (Mar 17 high).

Oil – 85.80

Initial support at 85.00 (Intraday Support) followed by 83.80 (Intraday Support). Initial resistance is now at 86.00 (March high) followed by 88.00 (Intraday Resistance).

Source: Easy Forex

My recommended Forex Broker is Forex Yard.

CURRENCY TRADING SUMMARY – 2nd April (00:30GMT)

U.S. Dollar Trading (USD) continued to find sellers as the market sold the safe haven currency in favor of riskier investments. Economic data is steadily improving with weekly jobless claims falling to 439k vs. 445k previously and March ISM Manufacturing jumping to 59.6 vs. 56.5 previously. In US stocks, DJIA +70 points closing at 10927, S&P +8 points closing at 1178 and NASDAQ +4 points closing at 2402. Looking ahead, March Non Farm Payrolls forecast at 190k vs. -36k previously. The Unemployment rate is forecast to stay at 9.7%.

The Euro (EUR) the rally continued for a second day as traders were optimistic that the global recovery including Europe was on track. EUR/JPY tracked above Y127 for the first time since January 28^th. German Retail Sales were weaker than expected at -0.4% vs. -0.1% forecast m/m. Overall the EUR/USD traded with a low of 1.3459 and a high of 1.3593 before closing at 1.3585. Looking ahead, Easter Bank Holiday.

The Japanese Yen (JPY) the market pushed the USD/JPY to fresh multimonth highs just above Y94 ahead of the very important US job figures today. Q1 TANKAN Survey at -14 vs. -13 forecast and -24 previously. Most crosses extended there respective rallies except for CHF/JPY which was lower on intervention by the Swiss central bank. Overall the USDJPY traded with a low of 93.26 and a high of 94.08 before closing the day around 92.85 in the New York session.

The Sterling (GBP) tracked the Euro higher on general risk appetite to test 1.5300. GBP/JPY traded above Y143 for the first time since Feb 17 and is turning aggressively bullish as the trade gains momentum. EUR/GBP traded briefly below 0.8880 but failed to follow through. Overall the GBP/USD traded with a low of 1.5179 and a high of 1.5301 before closing the day at 1.5270 in the New York session.

The Australian Dollar (AUD) Regained the 0.9200 level as Oil and Gold rallied heavily and risk appetite helped the high yielding currency. AUD/NZD reclaimed the 1.3000 level after an IMF report put the NZD as overvalued by 10-15%. February Trade Balance forecast at -1924mn vs. -1300 forecast. Overall the AUD/USD traded with a low of 0.9153 and a high of 0.9219 before closing the US session at 0.9195.

Oil & Gold (XAU) broke higher above resistance at $1119 to trade in the $1120′s. Overall trading with a low of USD$1111 and high of USD$1128 before ending the New York session at USD$1126 an ounce. Staged another impressive rally to break and close for the week above $85 a barrel. Crude Oil was up +$1.39 ending the New York session at $83.76.

TECHNICAL COMMENTARY

Currency	Sup 2	Sup 1	Spot	Res 1	Res 2
EUR/USD	1.3247	1.3270	1.3575	1.3591	1.3608
USD/JPY	91.09	91.77	93.80	94.64	95.10
GBP/USD	1.4784	1.4975	1.5270	1.5327	1.5382
AUD/USD	0.8936	0.8978	0.9200	0.9216	0.9250
XAU/USD	1085.00	1102	1125.00	1133	1145.00
OIL/USD	83.80	85	85.30	86	88.00

Euro – 1.3575

Initial support at 1.3270 (March 26 low) followed by 1.3247 (May 6 low). Initial resistance is now located at 1.3591 (April 1 high) followed by 1.3608 (0.618 of 1.3818-1.3268)

Yen – 93.80

Initial support is located at 91.77 (Mar 25 low) followed by 91.09 (Mar 24 low). Initial resistance is now at 94.64 (Aug 25 high) followed by 95.1 (0.618 of 101.44-84.83).

Pound – 1.5270

Initial support at 1.4975 (Mar 30 low) followed by 1.4784 (Ma low). Initial resistance is now at 1.5327 (Mar 31 high) followed by 1.5382 (Mar 19 high).

Australian Dollar – 0.9200

Initial support at 0.8978 (Mar 4 low) followed by the 0.8936 (Mar 1 low). Initial resistance is now at 0.9216 (Mar 30 high) followed by 0.9250 (March 17 high).

Gold – 1125

Initial support at 1085 (Mar 24 low) followed by 1078 (Feb 12 low). Initial resistance is now at 1118 (Mar 31 high) followed by 1133 (Mar 17 high).

Oil – 85.20

Initial support at 85.00 (Intraday Support) followed by 83.80 (Intraday Support). Initial resistance is now at 86.00 (March high) followed by 88.00 (Intraday Resistance).

Source: Easy Forex

My recommended Forex Broker is Forex Yard.

Fed President Evans says extended period means 3-4 policy meetings!

• Yesterday was a light day in terms of financial data with no major economic reports released from the US. Overall the USD traded weaker, equity markets almost unchanged and commodities such as OIL and Gold closed at $81 and $1115. Fed President Evans was in the spot light and was reportedly commenting about the state of the economy and said that if economic circumstances change quickly then a change in policy could be very likely. He said that ‘extended period’ means 3-4 policy meetings. 2 year US Treasury yields traded between 0.89% and 0.87% yesterday and the USDJPY traded in a tight range as well between 90.45 – 89.75.
• In Europe we had more news coming from Fitch, a rating agency, saying that its negative outlook of Portugal remains and that a possible default should not be ruled out. Greek prime minister made a visit to Washington and met with US President Barack Obama. The meeting was not intended to ask for financial aid from the US however he did express to the President that Greece cannot continue to borrow at the current yields. IMF also said that the meeting with Papandreou was to discuss technical assistance; this can only add pressure to Germany as outside help may be considered as a blow of confidence against European solidarity. EURUSD price action yesterday was between 1.3636 – 1.3536.
• In the UK we had Fitch again express concerns over the UK’s deficit profile however said that it still remains within the AAA rating. They also expressed concerns about UK banks and that a wave of defaults may occurs if Government support is withdrawn. BoE Posen also spoke yesterday saying that QE has helped the UK economy and that if the need arises again further operations may be resumed.
• Today’s the focus will turn to Germany’s consumer price index expected to drop to 0.4 yy. Manufacturing production will be released in UK where 1.4% growth is expected for the month of January. In the US we have a number of mortgage related data, the Fed budget for February expected at $-222bln and Crude Oil Inventories for the week expected to drop to 2.1 mln barrels.

Currency to watch out for: EURUSD & USDJPY

• § The EURUSD pivot point is at 1.3650 with a preference to enter into short positions at 1.3640
• § The USDJPY pivot point is at 89.70 with a preference to enter long positions at 89.75

Today’s calendar and market movers:

• § Germany Consumer Price index expected to drop to 0.4% for the year
• § UK Manufacturing Production for year expected to grow 1.4%
• § US Crude Oil Inventories for the week expected to be 2.1 bln barrels

Equity Markets:

• US equities closed positive yesterday with the DJIA and the SP500 closing 0.11% and 0.17% respectively.  The European bourses were mixed yesterday with the FTSE down -0.08% the DAX and the CAC closing positive at 0.17% and 0.17% respectively.  The NIKKEI and the HSI at the time of writing is -0.04% and 0.06% respectively.

Source: Easy Forex

My recommended Forex Broker is Forex Yard.

CURRENCY TRADING SUMMARY – 5th March (00:30GMT)

U.S. Dollar Trading (USD) was strong even as stock markets remained positive as the EUR/USD slumped after the ECB announcement and USD/JPY rallied on increasing US Bond Yields. Weekly Jobless Claims improved to 469k vs. 496k. January Pending Home Sales fell -7.2% tracking a broad set of weak housing data in January. In US stocks, DJIA +47 points closing at 10396, S&P +4 points closing at 1122 and NASDAQ +11 points closing at 2292. Looking ahead, February NonFarm Payrolls forecast at -50k vs. -20k previously and the Unemployment rate is forecast at 9.8% vs. 9.7%.

The Euro (EUR) lost ground after the ECB held rates at 1.0% and described the current levels as appropriate with economic growth uneven. EUR/JPY held its own as stock markets improved but EUR/AUD slumped back close to the key 1.50 handle. Also released, Q4 GDP confirmed at 0.1%. Overall the EUR/USD traded with a low of 1.3551 and a high of 1.3714 before closing at 1.3570. Looking ahead, January Factory Orders are forecast at 1.5% vs. -2.3% m/m.

The Japanese Yen (JPY) suffered a major reversal of fortune against the USD with the 3 month Libor turning to the dollars favor for the first time since August 2009. General USD strength and solid crosses also underpinned. GBP/JPY is beginning to rally from 9 month lows at Y132. Overall the USDJPY traded with a low of 88.12 and a high of 89.27 before closing the day around 89.10 in the New York session.

The Sterling (GBP) rallied on heavy GBP/JPY buying in New York to trade above 1.5100 but this was short lived as the Euro fell back late in the day and the pair ended on a slightly weakish footing. EUR/GBP moved lower but is still contained inside the 90-91 range. The BOE held at 0.5% and kept the Asset Purchase Program at 200bn. Overall the GBP/USD traded with a low of 1.5004 and a high of 1.5139 before closing the day at 1.5040 in the New York session. Looking ahead, February PPI input is forecast at 0.25 vs. 2% previously m/m.

The Australian Dollar (AUD) tracked the EURO lower as AUD/JPY broke down through Y80 in early Europe before heavy buying emerged later in New York to keep the AUD/USD near the 0.9000 level. January Trade Balance was at -1.2bn vs. -1.5bn forecast. Overall the AUD/USD traded with a low of 0.8977 and a high of 0.9056 before closing the US session at 0.9040.

Oil & Gold (XAU) fell back as the strong USD discouraged commodity buying. Overall trading with a low of USD$1125 and high of USD$1142 before ending the New York session at USD$1132 an ounce. Held ground as the improving sentiment countered the stronger dollar. Crude Oil was down -$0.30 ending the New York session at $80.60.

TECHNICAL COMMENTARY

Currency	Sup 2	Sup 1	Spot	Res 1	Res 2
EUR/USD	1.3436	1.3552	1.3580	1.3736	1.3788
USD/JPY	87.37	87.74	89.10	89.50	90.36
GBP/USD	1.4855	1.4959	1.5030	1.5136	1.5209
AUD/USD	0.8863	0.8936	0.8995	0.9086	0.9147
XAU/USD	1121.00	1125	1132.00	1144	1161.00
OIL/USD	78.00	80	80.50	82.00	82.50

Euro – 1.3580

Initial support at 1.3552 (Mar 4 low) followed by 1.3436 (Mar 2 low). Initial resistance is now located at 1.3732 (Mar 3 high) followed by 1.3788 (Feb 17 high)

Yen – 89.10

Initial support is located at 87.74 (Dec 10 low) followed by 87.37 (Dec 9 low). Initial resistance is now at 89.50 (Feb 26 high) followed by 90.36 (Feb 23 high).

Pound – 1.5030

Initial support at 1.4959 (Mar 3 low) followed by 1.4855 (Mar 2 low). Initial resistance is now at 1.5136 (Mar 4 high) followed by 1.5209 (Mar 1 low).

Australian Dollar – 0.8995

Initial support at 0.8936 (Mar 1 low) followed by the 0.8863 (Feb 26 low). Initial resistance is now at 0.9086 (Mar 3 high) followed by 0.9147 (Jan 21 high).

Gold – 1132

Initial support at 1125 (Mar 4 low) followed by 1111 (Mar 1 low). Initial resistance is now at 1144 (Mar 3 high) followed by 1161 (Jan 11 high).

Oil – 80.50

Initial support at 80.00 (Intraday Support) followed by 78.00 (Intraday Support). Initial resistance is now at 82.00 (Intraday Resistance) followed by 82.50 (Intraday Resistance).

Source: Easy Forex

My recommended Forex Broker is Forex Yard.

CURRENCY TRADING SUMMARY – 4th March (00:30GMT)

U.S. Dollar Trading (USD) the market reacted well to the new Greece Austerity measures in Europe and the Euro led the majors higher against the greenback. Adding to the positive sentiment was the February ISM Services PMI at 53 vs. 51 forecast. February ADP Employment report was a relief at -20k as forecast. In US stocks, DJIA -9 points closing at 10396, S&P +1 points closing at 1118 and NASDAQ -1 points closing at 2280. Looking ahead, Weekly Jobless Claims are forecast at 470k vs. 496k previously. January Factory Orders are forecast at 1.8% vs. 1.0% previously. Finally, January Pending Home Sales are forecast at 1%.

The Euro (EUR) with over $6bn in new budget cuts announced from Greece the market took another leg higher breaking above resistance at 1.3700. EUR/GBP was volatile as the market rejected 0.9100 and Pound found strength on good data. Overall the EUR/USD traded with a low of 1.3591 and a high of 1.3737 before closing at 1.3700. Looking ahead, ECB Rate Announcement forecast to remain at 1.0%.

The Japanese Yen (JPY) Euro inspired USD weakness hurt the major as it broke below support at 88.50 and the gradual decline continued. Crosses held their ground and most finished with small gains. AUD/JPY continues to hold above Y80 and is one of the most closely watch trades for overall investor risk appetite. Overall the USDJPY traded with a low of 88.30 and a high of 89.02 before closing the day around 88.45 in the New York session.

The Sterling (GBP) broke above 1.5000 in Asia as the recovery continued and Europe continued with the theme as Economic data impressed. February Services PMI jumped to 58 vs 55. Also strong, February Nationwide Consumer Confidence at 80 vs. 71 previously. Overall the GBP/USD traded with a low of 1.4974 and a high of 1.5134 before closing the day at 1.5100 in the New York session. Looking ahead, BOE rate Announcement.

The Australian Dollar (AUD) was quiet as profit taking on the major in the high 0.90′s capped gains and traders looked to the crosses for action. AUD/NZD broke to fresh decade highs above 1.3000 and quickly ran up to the 1.31 level. Q4 GDP came in at 0.9% q/q as forecast. Overall the AUD/USD traded with a low of 0.9007 and a high of 0.9088 before closing the US session at 0.9035. Looking ahead, January Trade Balance is forecast at -1.5bn vs. -2.25bn.

Oil & Gold (XAU) took advantage of USD weakness to trade above $1140 for the first time since January. Overall trading with a low of USD$1131 and high of USD$1145 before ending the New York session at USD$1139 an ounce. Crude Oil broke above $80 on Bullish US inventories data. Crude Oil was up +$1.27 ending the New York session at $80.95.

TECHNICAL COMMENTARY

Currency	Sup 2	Sup 1	Spot	Res 1	Res 2
EUR/USD	1.3424	1.3436	1.3705	1.3788	1.3839
USD/JPY	87.37	88.25	88.45	89.50	90.36
GBP/USD	1.4784	1.4855	1.5100	1.5209	1.5317
AUD/USD	0.8863	0.8936	0.9055	0.9093	0.9147
XAU/USD	1104.00	1111	1139.00	1146	1161.00
OIL/USD	78.00	80	80.80	82.00	82.50

Euro – 1.3705

Initial support at 1.3436 (Mar 2 low) followed by 1.3424 (may 18 low). Initial resistance is now located at 1.3692 (Feb 23 high) followed by 1.3788 (Feb 17 high)

Yen – 88.45

Initial support is located at 88.25 (0.618 of 84.83-93.77) followed by 87.37 (Dec 9 low). Initial resistance is now at 89.50 (Feb 26 high) followed by 90.36 (Feb 23 high).

Pound – 1.5100

Initial support at 1.4855 (Mar 2 low) followed by 1.4784 (Mar 1 low). Initial resistance is now at 1.5209 (Mar 1 high) followed by 1.5317 (Feb 26 low).

Australian Dollar – 0.9055

Initial support at 0.8936 (Mar 1 low) followed by the 0.8863 (Feb 26 low). Initial resistance is now at 0.9093 (Jan 25 high) followed by 0.9147 (Jan 21 high).

Gold – 1139

Initial support at 1111 (Mar 1low) followed by 1104 (Feb 26 low). Initial resistance is now at 1146 (Jan 14 high) followed by 1161 (Jan 11 high).

Oil – 80.80

Initial support at 80.00 (Intraday Support) followed by 78.00 (Intraday Support). Initial resistance is now at 82.00 (Intraday Resistance) followed by 82.50 (Intraday Resistance).

Source: Easy Forex

My recommended Forex Broker is Forex Yard.

CURRENCY TRADING SUMMARY – 3rd March (00:30GMT)

U.S. Dollar Trading (USD) was softer across the board after downside action on the Euro and GBP abated and commodities rallied in the US session. Stock markets struggled to hold gains but the damage to the USD was already done and fresh weakness can not be ruled out as positive sentiment prevails. In US stocks, DJIA +2 points closing at 10405, S&P +2 points closing at 1118 and NASDAQ +7 points closing at 2280. Looking ahead, February ADP employment forecast at -15k vs. -22k previously. Also released, February ISM Services PMI rose to 51 vs. 50.5 previously.

The Euro (EUR) hit new year lows under 1.3450 but then was bought for the rest of the day on positive developments from Greece. The Greece PM looking to sure up support for fresh Greek debt issuance stated he would be making ‘Brave Decisions’. Overall the EUR/USD traded with a low of 1.3459 and a high of 1.3659 before closing at 1.3610. Looking ahead, German Retail Sales are forecast at -0.5% vs. 0.9% previously.

The Japanese Yen (JPY) crosses did well in the ‘risk on’ environment but late USD weakness saw the the USD/JPY break down to fresh 2010 lows near 88.60. EUR/JPY found solid support under Y120 and could retrace if the Eurozone Sentiment improves again today. Overall the USDJPY traded with a low of 88.54 and a high of 89.39 before closing the day around 88.75 in the New York session.

The Sterling (GBP) encountered weakness at the start of Europe but this was contained and the pair rallied with the Euro up to 1.5000 resistance. EUR/GBP resumed its uptrend and closed at the 0.9100 level. Overall the GBP/USD traded with a low of 1.4852 and a high of 1.4992 before closing the day at 1.4980 in the New York session. Looking ahead, Service PMI is forecast at 55 vs. 54.5 previously.

The Australian Dollar (AUD) found support from the rise in Interest Rates from the RBA meeting yesterday as the central bank increased by 0.25% to 4.0%. Some traders were quick to take profit however as the statement declined to comment on the pace of further rate hikes this year. Strength was seen in the US session on the back of Gold’s move higher. Overall the AUD/USD traded with a low of 0.8957 and a high of 0.9060 before closing the US session at 0.9035. Looking ahead, Q4 GDP is forecast at 0.9% vs. 0.2% previously.

Oil & Gold (XAU) broke through resistance at $1130 as the bulls took control once again. Overall trading with a low of USD$1114 and high of USD$1138 before ending the New York session at USD$1114 an ounce. Crude Oil toyed with the $80 a barrel level as the Dollar weakened. Crude Oil was up +$0.91 ending the New York session at $79.68.

TECHNICAL COMMENTARY

Currency	Sup 2	Sup 1	Spot	Res 1	Res 2
EUR/USD	1.3405	1.3424	1.3610	1.3692	1.3788
USD/JPY	88.25	88.56	88.75	89.50	90.36
GBP/USD	1.4704	1.4784	1.4960	1.5209	1.5317
AUD/USD	0.8863	0.8936	0.9035	0.9071	0.9093
XAU/USD	1104.00	1111	1133.00	1137	1141.00
OIL/USD	77.00	78	79.60	80.00	82.50

Euro – 1.3610

Initial support at 1.3424 (May 18 low) followed by 1.3405 (0.618 of 1.2330-1.5144). Initial resistance is now located at 1.3692 (Feb 23 high) followed by 1.3788 (Feb 17 high)

Yen – 88.75

Initial support is located at 88.56 (Feb 4 low) followed by 88.25 (0.618 of 1.2330-1.5144). Initial resistance is now at 89.50 (Feb 26 high) followed by 90.36 (Feb 23 high).

Pound – 1.4960

Initial support at 1.4784 (Mar 1 low) followed by 1.4704 (April 30 low). Initial resistance is now at 1.5209 (Mar 1 high) followed by 1.5317 (Feb 26 low).

Australian Dollar – 0.9035

Initial support at 0.8936 (Mar 1 low) followed by the 0.8863 (Feb 26 low). Initial resistance is now at 0.9071 (Feb 23 high) followed by 0.9093 (Jan 25 high).

Gold – 1133

Initial support at 1111 (Mar 1low) followed by 1104 (Feb 26 low). Initial resistance is now at 1137 (Mar 2 high) followed by 1141.78 (Jan 20 high).

Oil – 79.60

Initial support at 78.00 (Intraday Support) followed by 77.00 (Intraday Support). Initial resistance is now at 80.00 (Intraday Resistance) followed by 82.50 (Intraday Resistance).

Source: Easy Forex

My recommended Forex Broker is Forex Yard.

Pound Skids to 10 Month Low

CURRENCY TRADING SUMMARY – 2nd March (00:30GMT)

U.S. Dollar Trading (USD) had a mixed day with strength against the Pound and Euro not being replicated against risk currencies such as CAD and AUD which tracked stock markets higher. February ISM manufacturing slipped to 56.5 vs. 57.5 forecast. In US stocks DJIA +78 points closing at 10400, S&P +11 points closing at 1115 and NASDAQ +35 points closing at 2273. Looking ahead, Weekly Redbook previously at 1.6% m/m.

The Euro (EUR) enjoyed support in Asia on the back of proposed debt bailout of Greece but there was little follow through in Europe when no new information was released. The pair was subsequently pulled lower from heavy Cable Sales. Overall the EUR/USD traded with a low of 1.3459 and a high of 1.3659 before closing at 1.3570. Looking ahead, January PPI is forecast at 0.6% vs. 0.1% m/m previously.

The Japanese Yen (JPY) stayed within Friday’s range with most of the action kept to the crosses with GBP/JPY slumping to 10 month lows near Y132. AUD/JPY outperformed closing above the key Y80 level. Overall the USDJPY traded with a low of 88.71 and a high of 89.50 before closing the day around 89.10 in the New York session. Looking ahead, January Unemployment is forecast at 5.2% vs. 5.1% previously.

The Sterling (GBP) crashed as key supports were broken and buyers capitulated in a stoploss fueled 400 pip fall. GBP/AUD hit 25 year lows below 1.66 and EUR/GBP soared over 0.9000 to touch 0.9150 in major moves across the board. GBP/USD recovered during the US session but the sentiment is still very bearish. Overall the GBP/USD traded with a low of 1.4781 and a high of 1.5206 before closing the day at 1.4990 in the New York session.

The Australian Dollar (AUD) stayed close to the key 0.9000 level on AUD/USD supported on dips by strong Gold and risk appetite. Traders stayed on the sidelines ahead of the RBA meeting today and January Retail Sales. Overall the AUD/USD traded with a low of 0.8933 and a high of 0.9018 before closing the US session at 0.9005. January Retail Sales are forecast at 0.5% vs. -0.7% m/m. Also released, March RBA Meeting forecast to hike 0.25%.

Oil & Gold (XAU) kept to a quiet range tracking the broader changes in USD strength. Overall trading with a low of USD$1111 and high of USD$1124 before ending the New York session at USD$1117 an ounce. Fell back on weak US manufacturing data and the stronger Dollar. Crude Oil was down -$1.24 ending the New York session at $78.42.

TECHNICAL COMMENTARY

Currency	Sup 2	Sup 1	Spot	Res 1	Res 2
EUR/USD	1.3424	1.3451	1.3555	1.3692	1.3788
USD/JPY	88.56	88.75	89.05	90.36	91.29
GBP/USD	1.4610	1.4704	1.4980	1.5209	1.5317
AUD/USD	0.8801	0.8863	0.8995	0.9071	0.9093
XAU/USD	1088.00	1104	1117.00	1131	1141.00
OIL/USD	77.00	78	78.70	80.00	82.50

Euro – 1.3555

Initial support at 1.3451 (Feb 25 low) followed by 1.3424 (May 18 low). Initial resistance is now located at 1.3692 (Feb 23 high) followed by 1.3788 (Feb 17 high)

Yen – 89.05

Initial support is located at 88.75 (Feb 26 low) followed by 88.56 (Feb 4 low). Initial resistance is now at 90.36 (Feb 24 high) followed by 91.29 (Feb 23 high).

Pound – 1.4980

Initial support at 1.4704 (Apr 30 low) followed by 1.4610 (April 29 low). Initial resistance is now at 1.5209 (Mar 1 high) followed by 1.5317 (Feb 26 low).

Australian Dollar – 0.8995

Initial support at 0.8863 (Feb 26 low) followed by the 0.8801 (Feb 25 low). Initial resistance is now at 0.9071 (Feb 23 high) followed by 0.9093 (Jan 25 high).

Gold – 1117

Initial support at 1104 (Feb 26 low) followed by 1088 (Feb 25 low). Initial resistance is now at 1131 (Feb 22 high) followed by 1141 (Jan 20 high).

Oil – 78.70

Initial support at 78.00 (Intraday Support) followed by 77.00 (Intraday Support). Initial resistance is now at 80.00 (Intraday Resistance) followed by 82.50 (Intraday Resistance).

Source: Easy Forex

My recommended Forex Broker is Forex Yard.

CURRENCY TRADING SUMMARY – 16th February (00:30GMT)

U.S. Dollar Trading (USD) was little changed in a quiet day of trading keeping to tight ranges against most currencies. US was on Holiday for President’s Day and China was also away for the New Year celebrations. Looking ahead, December Long term TIC flows forecast at 50bn vs. 126bn previously. Also released, NAHB Housing Market Index forecast 16 vs. 15.

The Euro (EUR) the market is focusing on the EU finance Ministers meeting for more details on Greece support. The EUR/USD pivoted the 1.3600 for most of the day but was very quiet. Overall the EUR/USD traded with a low of 1.3578 and a high of 1.3636 before closing at 1.3600. Looking ahead, EU Finance Ministers Meeting Statement expected. Also released, February German ZEW survey forecast at 42.5 vs. 47.2 previously.

The Japanese Yen (JPY) traded in a very tight range on the USD/JPY around the Y90 level but is starting to build support below the key level. Supporting risk in the Asian session was better than expected Q4 GDP at 1.1% vs. 0.9% forecast Q/Q. Overall the USDJPY traded with a low of 89.90 and a high of 90.25 before closing the day around 90.05 in the New York session. Looking ahead, Chinese holidays continue.

The Sterling (GBP) had the widest trading range of the majors with support in the lower 1.5600 area tested before resistance above 1.5700 later in Europe. GBP/JPY is building support below Y141 but is still contained by resistance at Y141.50. Overall the GBP/USD traded with a low of 1.5610 and a high of 1.5723 before closing the day at 1.5665 in the New York session.

The Australian Dollar (AUD) found support on dips from a strong performance in Gold overnight and positive stocks in Europe. Resistance above 0.8900 is containing for now whilst the market waits for speeches from RBA Stevens and Debelle later this week. Overall the AUD/USD traded with a low of 0.8846 and a high of 0.8912 before closing the US session at 0.8895. Looking ahead, February RBA meeting minutes released.

Oil & Gold (XAU) was a solid performer testing and closing above the key $1100 level. Overall trading with a low of USD$1091 and high of USD$1103 before ending the New York session at USD$1101 an ounce. Oil was little changed with the US away. Crude Oil was down -$0.13 ending the New York session at $74.00.

TECHNICAL COMMENTARY

Currency	Sup 2	Sup 1	Spot	Res 1	Res 2
EUR/USD	1.3423	1.3531	1.3600	1.3801	1.3839
USD/JPY	88.83	89.15	90.05	90.55	91.08
GBP/USD	1.5536	1.5560	1.5670	1.5776	1.5888
AUD/USD	0.8710	0.8750	0.8890	0.8921	0.8962
XAU/USD	1061.00	1078	1099.00	1111	1125.00
OIL/USD	70.00	72.50	74.10	75.00	77.00

Euro – 1.3600

Initial support at 1.3531 (May 19 low) followed by 1.3424 (May 18 low). Initial resistance is now located at 1.3801 (Feb 11 high) followed by 1.3839 (Feb 9 high)

Yen – 90.05

Initial support is located at 89.15 (Feb 8 low) followed by 88.83 (Feb 5 low). Initial resistance is now at 90.55 (0.382 of 93.77-88.56) followed by 91.08 (Feb 4 high).

Pound – 1.5670

Initial support at 1.5560 (Feb 11 low) followed by 1.5536 (Feb 8 low). Initial resistance is now at 1.5776 (Feb 5 high) followed by 1.5888 (0.382 of 1.6458-1.5536).

Australian Dollar – 0.8890

Initial support at 0.8750 (Feb 11 low) followed by the 0.8710 (Feb 10 low). Initial resistance is now at 0.8921 (Feb 2 high) followed by 0.8962 (Jan 29 high).

Gold – 1099

Initial support at 1078 (Feb 12 low) followed by 1061 (Feb 8 low). Initial resistance is now at 1111 (Feb 4 high) followed by 1125 (Feb 3 high).

Oil – 74.10

Initial support at 72.50 (Intraday Support) followed by 70.00 (Intraday Support). Initial resistance is now at 75.00 (Intraday Resistance) followed by 77.00 (Intraday Resistance).

Source: Easy Forex

My recommended Forex Broker is Forex Yard.

Last week’s currency trading review

The Dollar gained strength from two sources through the week. Euro weakness kept the dollar well supported as the biggest currency pair in market reacted to ongoing Greece fears and China raised bank reserve ratios. The other source of strength was the speech from Bernanke outlining measures the FED will take to prepare the market for tightening later in the year. Economic data was mixed with the January Trade Balance weakening to -40bn vs. -35bn forecast being countered by strong January Retail sales at 0.5% vs. 0.4% previously. The Euro continued to fall after staging a midweek rally on hopes that a EU backed bailout would take the pressure off Greece. The announcement from the EU summit failed to outline any specific help and the market once again tested the downside for support. Adding to the Bearish outlook was the weaker than expected EU Q4 GDP at 0.1% vs. 0.4% forecast. The EUR/USD fell -0.32% closing at 1.3633, after opening the week at 1.3677.

The Japanese Yen ending the week on the back foot as stock markets lifted off lows and USD/JPY pushed through the key Y90 level. EUR/JPY was very volatile trading through the Y122-124 levels as Euro flipped around. Yen weakness was pared on Friday after the Chinese Bank reserve ratio was hiked 0.5%. The USD/JPY gained +0.81 % closing at 89.97 after opening the week at 89.24. The GBP was able to end slightly higher on improved risk appetite and GBP/JPY buying. Also helping to cap losses was support from EUR/GBP selling. On the data front the Inflation report and Governor King’s speech on Wednesday was dovish as expected but the sellers found good buyers below 1.5600. GBP/USD gained +0.33% closing at 1.5692 after opening at 1.5640. The AUD staged a major rally as the oversold risk currency bounced back on stronger stocks and stellar Jobs data. January Employment rose +52k vs. +15k forecast and the Unemployment rate dropped to 5.3% vs. 5.6%. The AUD/USD gained +2.33% closing at 0.8890 after opening at 0.8683.

The forex trading week preview

In the States; On Monday, President’s Day Bank holiday. On Tuesday, December Long Term TICS Flows forecast at 50bn vs. 126bn previously. On Wednesday, FED minutes released from the Jan 27 meeting. Also released, January Housing Starts are forecast at 0.58m vs. 0.56m previously. On Thursday, Weekly Jobless claims are forecast at 445k vs. 440k previously. On Friday, January CPI is forecast at 2.8% y/y vs. 2.7% previously. We will provide our previews and reviews of these data releases in the daily summary.

In the Eurozone; On Tuesday, German February ZEW forecast at 41.0 vs. 47.2 previously. On Friday, February German PMI is forecast at 53.9 vs. 53.7 previously. In the UK; On Tuesday, January CPI is forecast at 3.6% vs. 2.9% previously. On Wednesday, BoE Minutes released. On Friday, January Retail Sales are forecast at 1.0% vs. 2.1% previously. We will provide our previews and reviews of these data releases in the daily summary.

In Japan; On Monday, Q4 GDP forecast at 0.9% vs. 0.3% previously. On Thursday, BOJ Rate meeting forecast to remain at 0.1%. In Australia; On Tuesday, RBA February meeting minutes are released. On Friday, RBA Governor Stevens testifies before government. We will provide our previews and reviews of these data releases in the daily summary.

TECHNICAL COMMENTARY

Currency	Sup 2	Sup 1	Spot	Res 1	Res 2
EUR/USD	1.3423	1.3531	1.3610	1.3801	1.3839
USD/JPY	88.83	89.15	90.05	90.55	91.08
GBP/USD	1.5536	1.5560	1.5670	1.5776	1.5888
AUD/USD	0.8710	0.8750	0.8875	0.8921	0.8962
XAU/USD	1061.00	1071	1094.00	1097	1103.00
OIL/USD	70.00	72.50	74.20	75.00	77.00

Euro – 1.3610

Initial support at 1.3531 (May 19 low) followed by 1.3424 (May 18 low). Initial resistance is now located at 1.3801 (Feb 11 high) followed by 1.3839 (Feb 9 high)

Yen – 90.05

Initial support is located at 89.15 (Feb 8 low) followed by 88.83 (Feb 5 low). Initial resistance is now at 90.55 (0.382 of 93.77-88.56) followed by 91.08 (Feb 4 high).

Pound – 1.5670

Initial support at 1.5560 (Feb 11 low) followed by 1.5536 (Feb 8 low). Initial resistance is now at 1.5776 (Feb 5 high) followed by 1.5888 (0.382 of 1.6458-1.5536).

Australian Dollar – 0.8875

Initial support at 0.8750 (Feb 11 low) followed by the 0.8710 (Feb 10 low). Initial resistance is now at 0.8921 (Feb 2 high) followed by 0.8962 (Jan 29 high).

Gold – 1094

Initial support at 1071 (Feb 8 low) followed by 1061 (Feb 8 low). Initial resistance is now at 1097 (Feb 11 high) followed by 1103 (0.500 of 1161.80-1044.85).

Oil – 74.20

Initial support at 72.50 (Intraday Support) followed by 70.00 (Intraday Support). Initial resistance is now at 75.00 (Intraday Resistance) followed by 77.00 (Intraday Resistance).

Source: Easy Forex

My recommended Forex Broker is Forex Yard.