Right attitude. The traders who are successful in trading forex takes on the attitude of doing what it takes to achieve success. This stresses that success lies on the person who are trading forex itself. It does not matter if you read forex trading tip sheets or listen to forex trading guru. It will become invalid if you don’t possess the right attitude for success. You can conduct experiments on your own for two weeks together with other novice traders. They are often called as turtles. Learning forex trading is avoiding the trap of believing that you can actually gain success by following someone else. Just get the right knowledge and develop a strategy of your own.

Right method. It should involve long term trends. Keep in mind that the trend on big currencies lasts for months or even for years. It is your responsibility to lock yourself into these trends to make huge profits. It is best suggested to use the breakout methods to catch long-term trends. This method is already proven by leading trading systems. Good software is also recommended for use. It allows the trader to test the trading method that was chosen and later on trade it on real times. You need to know proper charting and mapping. There is already available software that will aid you regarding market moves. It will allow you to calculate the best times for selling or buying when you are able to read forex market charts.

Right discipline. The traders should discipline themselves by strictly following on their developed methods even when losing period’s strikes. It could teach them new techniques on how to survive the forex markets even when downfalls strike.

Right knowledge. The traders can quickly learn the breakout method, however, they should also overcome psychological pitfalls involved in forex trading. It is recommended to read motivational books that mainly focus on this matter.

Take the risks. The common mistake done by most forex traders is trying to restrict the risks. In the end they may suffer great losses because they are being blocked out in the forex market. The trader’s direction is right however the trade does not have enough room for downsides. Always remember that in forex trading risks lays the rewards. There is a difference between rushing in taking risks which are already calculated. It only allows you to wait for the right opportunity.

Trading in isolation. The trader should learn this to keep focused. Remember that if you are open to the views and opinions of others, it may discourage you if you find it very different. It does not necessarily mean you follow the opinion agreed upon by many traders, because most often, many traders acquire losses.

Before trading foreign exchange you must educate yourself.

It is very important to know even the basics of forex trading to gain success, but this is no guarantee, not by a long shot, you need to know more than the basics to even have a fighting chance of succeeding. There are different ways to learn forex trading. You can join online services, enroll in a forex trading school, become an apprentice of a forex trader, or do it alone. However, doing it alone involves a lot of risks especially for beginners.

For novice traders, it is much better to choose the safer ways of learning forex trading. You are going to benefit from experienced instructors who are already trading forex in real times. In this manner, you are being acquainted with the real market conditions. You are given the chance to see the actual processes and decisions which you can later on adopt. Nevertheless, it is your own strategy that will win you up.

Forex market is considered the largest market in the world. It is operational twenty four hours a day, five days a week. Its processes are been carried out in real times without boundaries. The trader’s success also depends on the right decision making. Learning forex trading have no barriers and entry points so you need to have better understanding before plunging into business. Although some people suggest that learning forex while trading is the best, but it is always your decision to choose the best way to learn that will suit your needs.

Today’s modern world offers a lot of convenience for people. There have been great changes which brought about many inventions and critical lifestyle changes for most people around the globe.

Life was quite simpler before, many people engaged in trading were able to trade goods and/or services within a specific location. After a while, when it was already possible to travel on the seas, trading was done from different places. Today, almost everyone is engaged in a certain trade, for him or her to be able to live a normal life able to get all their needs.

These days, people who have no work, or does not earn any income whatsoever goes hungry. If you have no money, then you can’t buy food, shelter, clothes, and other necessities. We live in a modern world which requires people to be effective and hard working individuals.

Perhaps the most popular of all trades is the forex trading. You probably have heard of it already. In this type of financial market, currencies are traded.

Before the internet was even introduced into the global market, forex trading was only for big corporations, the rich ones or the elite. Most large organizations also take part in this trade. But now, things are different. Because of the help of the internet, people from around the globe can actually do forex trading, whether you’re rich or middle class.

If you have an internet connection at home, then you can do your trading there. If you want to be part of the online forex trading, it is best if you can secure an effective system which you can use in your trade. If you have a system, you can now generate signals.

Automatic trading signals will help you a lot in spotting opportunities in the forex market. These opportunities may just be the ones that you’ve been waiting for to hit it big in the market.

You can also get trading signals from the daily newspaper, radio, television, and online forums. But there are times when these signals are somewhat biased. There is therefore a need for unbiased automatic trading signals.

To be able to get automatic trading signals, the first thing that you should accomplish is choosing the best and the right system. There are many systems available on the net. In case you don’t know yet, a system is a method, software, or course that is designed especially by forex trading experts.

With a little research, and participation in discussions online, you may be able to get a good idea on which system will work best for you.

Once you’ve chosen the system, you need to subscribe for automatic trading alerts. After you’ve made a subscription, you can now receive live alerts which you can use in your currency trading.

These automatic trading signals provide alerts about entry and/or exit points for the different major currencies (in pair) for example the US dollar and Japanese Yen or the Euro and US dollars.

These alerts are all provided in real time, making possible for you to tap into your forex trading all day long, and all throughout the week.

Each time an opportunity turns up; you will receive an instant automatic trading signal. You can receive the signals through your email. But if you are a busy person, who needs to go out more often and carries a cellular phone with you, you can receive the alert on your phone, and most providers makes no extra charges.

Usually, most providers offer added features on their automatic trading signals, like the one mentioned about receiving alerts on your cell phones, to stay competitive in the market.

Automatic trading alerts can really help you a lot in making decisions pertaining to forex trading.

AvaFX offers the possibility to automatically execute these trading signals so all you have to do is choose one of their four trading strategies.

US retail sales for April will be released on Friday May 14th. Retail sales are expected to have continued to rise in April but at a slower pace than last month. The Commerce Department reported that March retail sales rose by 1.6% and sales were 7.6% higher from a year ago. This marked the largest monthly increase in retail sales since last November. Most of the gain in March retail sales reflects strong auto sales, improving weather and demand for clothing. Major snow storms blanketed much of the US in February. Auto sales rose by 6.7%. Ex. autos retail sales rose by 0.6% compared to 1% in February. Improving weather and the Easter holiday boosted sales for clothing which rose by 2.3% and building materials and garden supplies rose by 3.1%. Sales of electronics and appliances dropped by 1.3% and gasoline receipts were lower.

The improvement in US retail sales suggests that the US economic recovery is gaining strength and consumers are more willing to spend. Consumer confidence and spending has been improving despite continued high unemployment. In April the US posted the biggest increase in nonfarm payrolls growth in four years. The April nonfarm payrolls report generates hope that the labor market is improving. If the labor market outlook continues to improve it should encourage more consumer spending. May Michigan consumer sentiment is due for release on May 14th and is expected to rise above 73.Improving consumer confidence and better jobs outlook suggest that that US retail sales will continue to post moderate gains. The recent increase consumer credit demand, the Greek debt crisis and the return volatility in equity markets may curb retail sales demand.

The increase in retail sales growth reflects renewed consumer credit expansion. March consumer credit was reported up 2bln, a 3.9bln decline was expected. Consumer credit has been rising over the last few months which suggest that consumer credit is stabilizing. The increase in March consumer credit reflects a sharp increase in revolving credit which includes auto loans. Auto sales account for much of the demand for retail sales and credit. Demand for autos has been partly fueled by government incentives. It is unclear whether demand for autos will remain high as the incentives lapse. The rise in consumer credit means that the consumers are not relying solely on savings to spend. This could be trouble if improvement in the labor market stalls .Borrowing to purchase goods during a period of high unemployment may not be sustainable. Additionally fallout from the Greek debt crisis and recent volatility in equity markets may have a chilling impact on consumer sentiment and spending.

April retail sales are expected to rise by 0.2% compared to an adjusted 1.6% rise in March. Ex. autos April retail sales are expected to rise by 0.4%. The slowdown in retail sales will likely reflect weaker auto sales, lower gasoline prices and weaker sales of clothing and electronics. Demand for building materials is expected to be positive. A slowing of retail sales in April may generate concern about the strength of the US recovery. Confidence in the recovery and improvement in the labor market have been major factors in the recent improvement in retail sales. A weak April retail report could dampen confidence in the recovery and the rebound in consumer spending may be fleeting. There can be no sustained recovery in retail sales without jobs creation. The April retail sales report may revive concern about the impact of high unemployment on consumer spending. If not the US may be returning to consumption and debt patterns that got us into the last financial crisis.

Source: Easy Forex

Recommended Forex Brokers: AvaFX and Forex Yard

FX Highlights

• The USD is trading mostly higher except versus the EUR, the EUR trades higher in reaction to report that Greece seeks to activate the EU/IMF aid package and in reaction to stronger than expected German IFO business sentiment, GBP trades lower pressured by report of weaker than expected UK Q1 GDP, CAD trades mixed to lower pressured by report of weaker than expected Canadian inflation, AUD trades lower pressured by dovish comments from RBA Governor Stevens, JPY trades lower in reaction to a CNBC report that a number of Fed board members want to begin selling assets, the Fed’s selling of assets would be the beginning of the withdrawal liquidity
• Focus turns to today’s release of US durable goods and new home sales and Canada’s CPI and retail sales are
• EU February industrial orders rose by 1.5%, April IFO improved to 101.6 from 98.2 last month, Greek/ German 10 year bond yield spread narrowed in reaction to report that Greece seeks to activate the EU/ IMF aid package, EU commission says Greek aid will be as soon as possible, EUR higher
• Canada’s March CPI rose by 1.4% and core fell by 0.2%,CAD lower
• RBA Governor Stevens says that interest rates are close to average and the future course of rates is an open question, Australia Q1 export prices rose by 3.8% import prices rose by 0.3%,AUD lower
• BOJ Governor Shirakawa says it’s inappropriate to use Forex as a tool to narrow trade deficit (a reference to China) and warns against inflation focus, JPY lower
• UK Q1 GDP rose by 0.2% , 0.4% rise was expected, GBP lower
• IMF Chief say there is no easy way to resolve the Greek crisis
• US equity markets set to open higher, European equities 1% higher, Nikkei closed 35 points lower

Upcoming Events

• US-Friday, March durable goods will be released expected to rise by 0.3% compared to 0.9% last month and 0.7% % ex. transportation along with March new home sales expected 330k compared to 308k last month
• CAN-Friday, March CPI will be released expected at 0.3% compared to 0.4% last month with the core rate expected at 0.1% and annual rate at 2%, (already released) along with February retail sales expected at 0.8% compared to 0.7% last month and 0.6% ex. autos

Source: Easy Forex

Recommended Forex Brokers: AvaFX and Forex Yard

• USD: Lower, stocks rally, global recovery optimism trumps EU sovereign debt fears
• JPY: Higher, risk appetite improves as Asian equities trade at a 22 month high
• EUR: Higher, rumor that the EU agrees on funding for aid to Greece, German trade surplus widens
• GBP: Higher, PPI rises as input prices surge, Conservatives widen their lead in the latest election polls
• CAD and AUD: AUD higher & CAD lower, Canada’s employment growth slower than expected

Overview
USD and JPY traded lower as Greek default fears recede and equity markets rally. Reassuring statements from German officials and ECB President Trichet coupled with report of the better than expected Greek budget sparked short covering in the EUR. Trichet said that Greece is not in need of a rescue and the German finance minister pledged that the EU and IMF would rescue Greece if needed. Equity markets traded higher with Asian equities trading at 22 month high. EUR traded to the day’s highs supported by report that the EU has agreed to be a backstop for Greece and will provide Greece with bilateral loans. Stronger than expected March sales for US retailers generates optimism about the global economic outlook sparked demand for equities. Today’s improvement in risk sentiment competes with lingering concern about sovereign debt risks in Europe. Optimism about the global recovery trumped EU sovereign debt fears in Friday’s trade. GBP traded higher supported by report of a surge in UK producer prices and in reaction to UK election polls would indicate that the Conservative party has widened its lead over Labor. Commodity currencies were mixed with the CAD pressured by report of weaker than expected Canadian employment growth. AUD traded higher supported by improving risk appetite and Yuan revaluation speculation. JPY was initially pressured by improving risk sentiment and a statement from Japan’s finance minister calling for more action to end deflation. JPY turned higher as USD declines on rumor that the EU will announce a Greek bailout plan over the weekend. Focus turns to next week’s release of US retail sales, industrial production, housing starts and consumer sentiment to gauge the strength of the US recovery.

Today’s US data: March wholesale inventories rose by 0.6%, a 0.3% was expected. March wholesale sales rose 0.1% as expected.

Upcoming US data: Next week’s US economic calendar includes the April 12th release of the March Treasury budget expected at $ -193.3bln compared to $-191.6bln last month. On April 13th March import prices and February trade balance will be released. Import prices are expected to rise by 0.9% compared to falling 0.3% last month. The trade balance is expected to widen to -38.6bln from -37.3bln last month. On April 14th March CPI will be released expected to rise by 0.1% compared to flat last month. March retail sales and February business inventories will also be released on April 14th. Retail sales are expected to rise by 0.8% compared to 0.3% last month and business inventories are expected to rise by 0.3% compared to flat last month. On April 15th April Empire Manufacturing Index will be released expected at 23.75 compared to 22.78 last month along with initial jobless claims for the week ending 04/10 expected and 451k compared to 460k last week. March industrial production, capacity utilization and the April Philly Fed will also be released on April 15th. Industrial production is expected to rise by 0.4% compared to 0.1% last month. Capacity utilization is expected at 73.1 compared to 72.7 last month and the Philly Fed is expected at 19 compared 18 in March. On April 16th March housing starts, building permits, and April University of Michigan consumer sentiment will be released. March housing starts are expected at 590k compared to 575k last month with building permits expected at 620k compared to 612k last month. Michigan consumer sentiment is expected at 74 compared to 73.6 last month.

JPY
JPY traded lower pressured by improving risk sentiment as equity markets rally. JPY was also pressured by a statement from Japan’s Finance Minister Kan calling for more action to end deflation.  Kan said that the economic outlook in Japan is improving and recent weakness of JPY helps strengthen Japanese business but he went on to say more must be done to end deflation. His comments suggest that the Japanese government plans to again press the BOJ to take more action to combat deflationary pressures in Japan. BOJ Governor Shirakawa met with the Japanese prime minister today and said that PM did not make any requests but investors suspect that if deflationary pressures continue in Japan the government will pressure the BOJ to take more action to end deflation. The BOJ has been reluctant to take more aggressive monetary policy action because of data which suggests that the Japanese economy is recovering. According to some of the BOJ policy board members recovery in Japan makes it harder to justify additional monetary ease. Wednesday the BOJ elected to hold policy steady and kept its economic assessment unchanged. In its policy statement the BOJ said it expects the economy to pick up, noted the improvement in business sentiment and pledged to maintain accommodative policy. The BOJ reaffirmed its commitment to combat deflationary pressures in Japan. In March the BOJ eased monetary policy and doubled the size of its refunding operation. Increase in the size of the BOJ funding operation helped to weaken the JPY. The fact that Kan welcomed the recent weakness in the JPY suggests that strength or weakness of the JPY will be a key factor to the degree of Japanese government pressure will be brought to bear upon the BOJ. JPY direction is re-linking with risk sentiment and the direction of equities.

Next week’s Japanese economic calendar includes the April 12th release of March money supply expected unchanged at 0.1%. On April 13th March CGPI will be released expected flat compared to 0.1% last month. On April 15th revised February industrial output will be released expected to fall by 0.9% compared to a 2.7% rise in the original report.

Key technical levels to watch in USD/JPY include support at 92.75 the March 31st low with resistance at 94.27 the April 7th high.

EUR

EUR traded higher supported by reassuring statements from EU officials that Greece will get international aid if needed. ECB President Trichet said that Greece is not in need of rescue and the German finance minister says that the EU and IMF would rescue Greece if needed. These statements coupled with report of improvement in the Greek budget data helped to calm investor jitters about the risk of a Greek debt default. The impact of these statements may be limited as the cost of financing the Greek debt remains high and there are fears that the Greek crisis may spread. EUR was also supported by report that the German February trade surplus widened to 12.6bln. The widening of the German trade surplus reflects a 5.1% rise in exports and imports expanded by 0.2%. EU efforts to talk down concern about the Greek debt crisis may not have lasting impact. Investors will continue to monitor the Greek bond spreads for clues to whether risk of the Greek debt default has truly receded and wait to see if EU rhetoric on Greece is backed up with action. EUR surged midsession in reaction to report that the EU has agreed to a deal to be a backstop for Greece. The EUR gains were limited as Fitch cut its Greek long term default rating to BBB- from BBB+.

Next week EU economic calendar includes the April 13th release of German CPI expected at 0.5% compare to 0.4%last month. On April 14th EU industrial production will be released expected flat compared to a 1.7% rise last month. On April 16th EU March CPI will be released expected at 0.9% compared to 0.3% last month along with  the February trade balance expected at -1bln compared to -8.9bln in January.

The technical outlook for the EUR is negative as EUR trades below 1.3500. Expect EUR support at 1.3267 the March 25th low with resistance at 1.3590 the April 1st high.

GBP

GBP traded higher supported by report of a surge in UK producer prices and in reaction to the latest UK election polls. UK March producer prices rose by 0.9% and input prices rose by 3.6%. The surge in input prices may be a red flag to the BOE in regard to inflationary pressures building in the UK. BOE officials expect the current rise in inflationary pressures to be temporary with the UK inflation rate falling below target within the next two years but continuing sharp increases in near-term inflation may encourage speculation that the BOE will need to rethink the timing of the withdrawal of its monetary stimulus. The surge in input prices should reduce the odds of additional asset purchases by the BOE. Thursday the BOE elected to hold rate policy steady and maintain the current level of asset purchases at £200. The latest UK election polls showed the Conservative party with a nine point lead over Labor. If this poll is accurate it may reduce the risk of a hung parliament as the Conservatives move closer to a majority in the UK Parliament. The UK general election will be held on May 6th. Recent UK election polls have heightened the risk that neither Conservative nor Labor party would gain enough control to avoid a hung parliament. A hung parliament will reduce the potential for quick action from the UK to reduce the government deficit. Failure to reduce the UK budget deficit could lead to a downgrade of the UK AAA sovereign debt rating.

Next week’s UK economic calendar includes the April 12th release of leading indicators, BRC retail sales and RICS house price balance. On April 13th the February trade balance will be released expected it -7.35bln compared to -7.98 billion last month.

The technical outlook for GBP is positive as GBP holds above 1.5200. Expect near-term support at 1.5200 with resistance at 1.5475 the February 23rd high.

CAD
CAD traded lower pressured by report of weaker than expected Canadian employment growth. Canada’s March unemployment growth was 17.9k, a rise of 25k was expected. The March unemployment rate was unchanged at 8.2%. Full-time employment declined and part-time employment rose. The slower than expected Canadian employment growth may dampen speculation that the BOC will hike rates earlier than expected. CAD has been supported by speculation that the Canadian domestic recovery was faster than expected and that this would lead the BOC to hike rates as early as June. Today’s slower employment growth suggests that the Canadian economy is not growing as fast as expected. Last month BOC Governor Carney said that he was open to consideration of a rate hike as early as June 1st. The BOC has pledged to maintain record low yields until June as long as inflation remains in check. Uncertainty about the timing of a BOC rate hike may limit demand for the CAD. Earlier in the week CAD traded at parity to the USD for the first time since July of 2008. CAD may be vulnerable to the increasing threat of intervention. Thursday Canada’s PM Harper repeated earlier comments that the BOC has expressed concern that the CAD rise may slow the recovery. Harper’s comments may inject fresh risk of intervention by the BOC to try to slow the rate of the CAD rise.

Next week’s Canadian economic calendar includes the April 13th release of February trade balance expected at 1.25bln compared to 0.799bln last month. February New Housing Price Index will be released on April 13th expected at 0.3% compared to 0.4% last month. On April 16th February manufacturing shipments will be released expected at 1.6% compared to 2.4% last month.

The technical outlook for CAD is mixed as USD/CAD holds above1.0000. Look for near-term support at 0.9991 the April 9th low with resistance at 1.0230 the March 30th high.

AUD
AUD traded higher supported by rising commodity prices, higher equity markets and Yuan revaluation speculation. Asian equity markets traded at a 22 month high supported by optimism about the global recovery and receding fears of an imminent Greek debt default. AUD rallied despite report that China may soon raise interest rates and revalue the Yuan in October. A rate hike from China may dampen the outlook for Asian growth and demand for Australian exports. Yuan revaluation is generally thought to be a positive for the AUD. AUD was also supported in cross trade to the JPY with JPY pressured by improving risk sentiment and continued concern about deflationary pressures in Japan. AUD is trading at a 19 month high versus the USD supported by this week’s 25bps RBA rate hike and improving risk sentiment. The AUD rally may begin to slow with pressure sparked by uncertainty about the global recovery and speculation and the RBA will be in no hurry to hike rates again. RBA watcher McCrann Wednesday said that the RBA will be in no rush to hike rates further. McCrann went on to say that the RBA will eventually move towards normality in monetary policy. The normal average for Australian overnight rate is seen at 4.25% to 5%. In addition the long side of the AUD is getting crowded and this may make the AUD vulnerable to a technical correction. According to a Bloomberg report investors are the most bullish the AUD since 2000.

Next week’s Australian economic includes the April 12th release of February housing finance expected  at -2.1% compared to -7.9% last month.

The technical outlook for the AUD is positive as the AUD rallies above 9300. Expect AUD support at 9266 the April 9th low with resistance at 9378 the November 17th high.

Source: Easy Forex

My recommended Forex Broker is Forex Yard.

• USD: Higher, growth slows in Europe, Greek debt troubles, stocks slide
• JPY: Mixed, BOJ held rate policy steady, leaves economic assessment unchanged
• EUR: Lower, Q4 GDP revised lower, cost of financing Greek debt rises
• GBP: Lower, service PMI disappoints, election uncertainty
• CAD and AUD: AUD & CAD mixed, RBA not in a hurry to hike rates again, OECD expects slower G-7 growth

Overview
USD traded higher Wednesday with the EUR pressured by Greek debt woes and in reaction to a downward revision in EU Q4 GDP. The cost to finance Greek debt continues to rise generating fear that the EU/IMF aid plan for Greece will fail. GBP was pressured by report of weaker UK service PMI and UK election uncertainty. Commodity currencies were mixed with AUD gains limited by a statement from RBA watcher McCrann that the RBA will not be in a hurry to raise rates further. CAD traded mixed as the price of crude drops and gold rises to a two-month high. Commodity currencies continue to outperform supported by optimism about the strength of the Asian economic recovery. The World Bank upgraded its GDP forecast for developing Asia and China. Concern about the recovery in the G-7 nation’s pressured stocks and supports the USD as the OECD says it expects a short term slow down in G-7 nations growth. JPY traded mixed initially pressured by the BOJ decision to hold rate policy steady and leave its economic assessment unchanged. Focus turns to BOE and ECB meetings Thursday. The ECB and BOE are expected to remain on hold.

Today’s US data:
February consumer credit will be released after this report is posted.

Upcoming US data:
On April 7th February consumer credit will be released expected 2.8bln compared to 5bln last month. On April 8th initial jobless claims for week ending 04/03 will be released expected at 432k compared to 439k last week. On April 9th March wholesale inventories and sales will be released. Wholesale inventories are expected to rise by 0.3% compared to -0.2% last month. Wholesale sales are expected to rise by 0.1% compared to 1.3% last month.

JPY
JPY traded mixed Wednesday supported by gains in cross trade and in reaction to weaker equity market trade. JPY gains were limited by BOJ decision to hold policy steady and maintain its current economic assessment. European and US equities traded lower in reaction to an OECD report that G-7 short term growth is expected to slow. JPY gains versus Europe are attributed to a report of a downward revision of EU Q4 GDP and disappointing UK service PMI. The BOJ elected to hold policy steady and kept its economic assessment unchanged. In its policy statement the BOJ said it expects the economy to pick up, noted the improvement in business sentiment and pledged to maintain accommodative policy. The BOJ reaffirmed its commitment to combat deflationary pressures in Japan. BOJ Governor Shirakawa said that he sees some signs of sustainable economic recovery. Shirakawa’s comments are unlikely to prevent Japanese government pressure for additional BOJ policy ease. The BOJ is likely to come under renewed pressure from the Japanese government to ease if deflationary pressures continue and the JPY strengthens. The only economic data released in Japan today was report that March foreign reserves rose to ¥1.045trln.

On April 8th February current account will be released expected at ¥1.62trln compared to ¥0.90. On April 9th February machinery orders will be released expected at 3.7% compared to -3.7% last month.

Key technical levels to watch in USD/JPY include support at 93.28 the April 1st low with resistance at 94.78 the April 5th high.

EUR
EUR traded lower pressured by Greek debt concern and in reaction to report that EU growth ground to a halt in Q4.The cost of financing Greek debt continues to rise on investor uncertainty about whether the EU/IMF plan to aid Greece will work. There was a report Tuesday that Greece may seek to amend the aid plan and bypass the IMF because the IMF loan conditions are too stringent. The OECD says it is confident that Greece can deal with the debt crisis. The OECD statement had limited impact and the EUR traded lower. The Greek PM says that EU support deal is a great success. His comments may have helped limit the EUR downside. EU Q4 GDP was revised down by 0.1% to flat. German industrial orders were flat. Although EU Q1 growth is improving, the ECB is not expected to change policy because of Greek debt troubles and the uneven nature of the EU recovery. Report that March service PMI improved to 54.1 from 51.8 last month had limited impact on today’s EUR trade. February PPI rose by 0.1%. EUR remains vulnerable to skepticism about the efficacy of the Greek aid plan and steady ECB policy. Focus turns to ECB policy meeting Thursday. No policy change is expected.

On April 8th EU February retail sales will be released expected at -0.2% compared to -1.3% last month along with February German industrial production and trade balance. The German industrial production is expected to rise by 0.7% and the trade balance is expected to narrow to 8bln from 8.7bln last month. ECB meet on April 8th .No policy change is expected.

The technical outlook for the EUR is negative as EUR trades below 1.3500. Expect EUR support at 1.3267 the March 25th low with resistance at 1.3467 the April 6th high.

GBP
GBP traded lower pressured by a disappointing UK service PMI and election uncertainty. UK March service PMI dropped to 56.5 compared to 58.4 last month, a reading of 58 was expected. Service sector output declined by 0.7%. The service sector is the largest sector accounting for 70% of the UK economy. The decline in the service PMI suggests that the UK recovery may be slowing. Despite the weaker growth outlook the BOE is expected to maintain steady policy ahead of the May 6th general election. The latest UK election polls point to increased risk of a hung parliament with neither the Conservative nor the Labor party gaining a majority. The Conservatives lead is down 8 points from 10. A hung parliament will reduce the potential for quick action from the UK to reduce the government deficit. Failure to reduce the UK budget deficit could lead to a downgrade of the UK AAA sovereign debt rating. Focus turns to Thursday’s BOE policy meeting. The BOE is unlikely to make any significant policy changes that could rock the boat before the UK election. Investors will be closely monitoring whether the BOE leaves the door open for future asset purchases or signals that improvement in the economy will reduce the need for more asset purchases by the BOE. The former appears to be the most likely outcome from Thursday’s BOE policy meeting. GBP may weaken in reaction to a dovish BOE policy bias.

On April 8th February industrial production will be released expected at -0.1%compared to -0.4% last month. BOE meet on April 8th.No policy change is expected. On April 10th March PPI will be released expected at 0.5% % compared to 0.3′% last month.

The technical outlook for GBP is mixed as GBP traded below 1.5200. Expect near-term support at 1.5043 the March 31st low with resistance at 1.5320 the April 5th high.

CAD
CAD traded mixed to higher supported by demand in cross trade to the EUR and in reaction to the World Bank upgrade of its developing Asia and China GDP forecast. The World Bank raised its developing Asia GDP forecast to 8.7% from 7.8% and China forecast to 9.5% from 8.7%.The OECD however says it expects short term G-7 growth to slow. Interesting to note the difference in today’s OECD forecast that the G-7 nation’s growth is likely to slow in contrast to the World Bank’s forecast of stronger growth in developing Asia and China. The growth led currencies like the CAD continue to outperform supported by optimism about demand for exports from Asia. Asia continues to lead the global recovery. There was a similar contrast to price action in commodities today with gold prices surging and crude prices weaker. Gold traded at two month high. Crude prices declined by 1%. CAD direction is closely correlated to the price of crude. The divergence in the price action in gold and crude contributes to range trade for CAD. Canada’s economic data was mixed with February building permits reported to have declined by 0.5%, the trade expected a 1.9% rise. March Ivey PMI came in at 57.8, a reading of 57 was expected. CAD traded at parity to the USD for the first time since July 2008 Tuesday supported by rising price of crude and BOC rate hike speculation. The combination of improving Canadian domestic economy and rising Canadian inflation generates speculation that the BOC will hike interest rates ahead of the Fed. According to a Bloomberg survey the BOC is expected to raise its overnight rate by 2 percentage points to 2.25% by the middle of 2011. Focus turns to this Friday’s release of Canadian unemployment. Canada is expected to have created over 25k new jobs last month. This would mark the third straight month of job creation in Canada. A strong Canadian employment report will add additional fuel to BOC rate hike speculation.

On April 9th March unemployment rate and employment growth will be released. The unemployment rate is expected to fall by 0.1% to 8.1% with employment growth at 29K compared to 20.9k last month.

The technical outlook for CAD is positive as USD/CAD trades below 1.0000. Look for near-term support at 0.9975 the July 15th low with resistance at 1.0230 the March 30th high.

AUD
AUD traded mixed consolidating near a 19 month high versus the USD.AUD traded at a 19 month high versus the USD Tuesday supported by report that the RBA hiked rates 25 basis points to 4.25%.The RBA left the door open for future rate hikes. AUD was also supported by report that March vehicle sales rose by a record amount of 15.2% and March PSI rose by 0.1 to 48.4. AUD gains were limited by comments from RBA watcher McCrann. The McCrann said that the RBA will be in no rush to hike rates further. McCrann went on to say that the RBA will eventually move towards normality in monetary policy. The normal average for Australian overnight rate is seen at 4.25% to 5%. As noted above, the World Bank upgraded its forecast for developing Asia and China GDP. Stronger GDP outlook in developing Asia and China is positive for Australian exports and the AUD. PIMCO management company says that it favors the growth linked currencies like the AUD because of attractive yields and anticipation of slower growth in the US and Europe. The OECD said that it expects short-term growth to slow in the G7 nations. According to a Bloomberg report investors are the most bullish the AUD since 2000.Focus turns to Thursday’s Australian unemployment report.

On April 8th March employment will be released expected unchanged at 5.3% with employment growth expected at 30k compared to 20k last month.

The technical outlook for the AUD is positive as the AUD rallies above 9200. Expect AUD support at 9165 the April 6th low with resistance at 9378 the November 17th high.

Source: Easy Forex

My recommended Forex Broker is Forex Yard.

CURRENCY TRADING SUMMARY – 5th April (00:30GMT)

U.S. Dollar Trading (USD) was broadly stronger in thin trading after the March Jobs report showed +162k new jobs and solid revisions in February and January. The March Unemployment Rate was steady at 9.7%. USD/JPY ticked higher into the Y94 region but ran out of steam above the Y94.60. EUR/USD slipped below 1.3500 before steadying into the close. US stocks were closed. Looking ahead, March ISM Services forecast at 54 vs. 53 previously. Looking ahead, February Pending Home Sales are forecast at 0.6% vs. -7.6% previously.

The Euro (EUR) the Strong USD after the Jobs data was the only move on Note on Easter Friday with support under the 1.3500 tested and holding. EUR/GBP continued to be pressured at the 0.8880 support with many feeling it is only a matter of time before the level breaks down. Next support of note is at the 0.8812. Overall the EUR/USD traded with a low of 1.3475 and a high of 1.3591 before closing at 1.3495. Looking ahead, Bank Holiday in Europe.

The Japanese Yen (JPY) the rally continued on the USD/JPY closing in the mid Y94 region as the market continues to push US Treasury Yields higher and Global stocks rally. AUD/JPY pushed Y97 and GBP/JPY tested Y144 as the risk currencies outperform. Overall the USDJPY traded with a low of 93.66 and a high of 94.69 before closing the day around 94.63 in the New York session.

The Sterling (GBP) bowed to the broad USD strength but held up better than most currencies as the Pound rally remains intact and risk appetite strong. Gains against the Euro and Yen continued and further gains are likely given the relatively low base from which the rally started. Overall the GBP/USD traded with a low of 1.5183 and a high of 1.5296 before closing the day at 1.5192 in the New York session.

The Australian Dollar (AUD) held close to the 0.9200 level as AUD/JPY buying countered USD strength after the NFP data. Strong Gold and Oil are underpinning the Aussie’s strength along with the RBA rate hike possibility on Tuesday. AUD/NZD is holding above 1.3000 nicely and could resume its recent uptrend. Overall the AUD/USD traded with a low of 0.9184 and a high of 0.9214 before closing the US session at 0.9187.

Oil & Gold (XAU) traded in a tight range above $1120 for the majority of the day. Overall trading with a low of USD$1117 and high of USD$1127 before ending the New York session at USD$1120 an ounce. Crude Oil was Closed for trading on Easter Friday.

TECHNICAL COMMENTARY

Currency	Sup 2	Sup 1	Spot	Res 1	Res 2
EUR/USD	1.3247	1.3270	1.3530	1.3591	1.3608
USD/JPY	91.09	91.77	94.40	94.64	95.10
GBP/USD	1.4784	1.4975	1.5270	1.5327	1.5382
AUD/USD	0.8936	0.8978	0.9215	0.9216	0.9250
XAU/USD	1085.00	1102	1126.00	1133	1145.00
OIL/USD	83.80	85	85.80	86	88.00

Euro – 1.3530

Initial support at 1.3270 (March 26 low) followed by 1.3247 (May 6 low). Initial resistance is now located at 1.3591 (April 1 high) followed by 1.3608 (0.618 of 1.3818-1.3268)

Yen – 94.40

Initial support is located at 91.77 (Mar 25 low) followed by 91.09 (Mar 24 low). Initial resistance is now at 94.64 (Aug 25 high) followed by 95.1 (0.618 of 101.44-84.83).

Pound – 1.5270

Initial support at 1.4975 (Mar 30 low) followed by 1.4784 (Ma low). Initial resistance is now at 1.5327 (Mar 31 high) followed by 1.5382 (Mar 19 high).

Australian Dollar – 0.9215

Initial support at 0.8978 (Mar 4 low) followed by the 0.8936 (Mar 1 low). Initial resistance is now at 0.9216 (Mar 30 high) followed by 0.9250 (March 17 high).

Gold – 1126

Initial support at 1085 (Mar 24 low) followed by 1078 (Feb 12 low). Initial resistance is now at 1118 (Mar 31 high) followed by 1133 (Mar 17 high).

Oil – 85.80

Initial support at 85.00 (Intraday Support) followed by 83.80 (Intraday Support). Initial resistance is now at 86.00 (March high) followed by 88.00 (Intraday Resistance).

Source: Easy Forex

My recommended Forex Broker is Forex Yard.

Fed President Evans says extended period means 3-4 policy meetings!

• Yesterday was a light day in terms of financial data with no major economic reports released from the US. Overall the USD traded weaker, equity markets almost unchanged and commodities such as OIL and Gold closed at $81 and $1115. Fed President Evans was in the spot light and was reportedly commenting about the state of the economy and said that if economic circumstances change quickly then a change in policy could be very likely. He said that ‘extended period’ means 3-4 policy meetings. 2 year US Treasury yields traded between 0.89% and 0.87% yesterday and the USDJPY traded in a tight range as well between 90.45 – 89.75.
• In Europe we had more news coming from Fitch, a rating agency, saying that its negative outlook of Portugal remains and that a possible default should not be ruled out. Greek prime minister made a visit to Washington and met with US President Barack Obama. The meeting was not intended to ask for financial aid from the US however he did express to the President that Greece cannot continue to borrow at the current yields. IMF also said that the meeting with Papandreou was to discuss technical assistance; this can only add pressure to Germany as outside help may be considered as a blow of confidence against European solidarity. EURUSD price action yesterday was between 1.3636 – 1.3536.
• In the UK we had Fitch again express concerns over the UK’s deficit profile however said that it still remains within the AAA rating. They also expressed concerns about UK banks and that a wave of defaults may occurs if Government support is withdrawn. BoE Posen also spoke yesterday saying that QE has helped the UK economy and that if the need arises again further operations may be resumed.
• Today’s the focus will turn to Germany’s consumer price index expected to drop to 0.4 yy. Manufacturing production will be released in UK where 1.4% growth is expected for the month of January. In the US we have a number of mortgage related data, the Fed budget for February expected at $-222bln and Crude Oil Inventories for the week expected to drop to 2.1 mln barrels.

Currency to watch out for: EURUSD & USDJPY

• § The EURUSD pivot point is at 1.3650 with a preference to enter into short positions at 1.3640
• § The USDJPY pivot point is at 89.70 with a preference to enter long positions at 89.75

Today’s calendar and market movers:

• § Germany Consumer Price index expected to drop to 0.4% for the year
• § UK Manufacturing Production for year expected to grow 1.4%
• § US Crude Oil Inventories for the week expected to be 2.1 bln barrels

Equity Markets:

• US equities closed positive yesterday with the DJIA and the SP500 closing 0.11% and 0.17% respectively.  The European bourses were mixed yesterday with the FTSE down -0.08% the DAX and the CAC closing positive at 0.17% and 0.17% respectively.  The NIKKEI and the HSI at the time of writing is -0.04% and 0.06% respectively.

Source: Easy Forex

My recommended Forex Broker is Forex Yard.

• USD: Mixed, US February unemployment beats expectations, stocks rise
• JPY: Lower, BOJ ease speculation, improving risk sentiment, Japans Libor rate falls below the US
• EUR: Higher, Deutsche Bank downgraded, ECB extends some liquidity operations
• GBP: Higher, PPI at 14 month high
• CAD and AUD: AUD & CAD higher, tracking improving risk sentiment, Canada to freeze spending

Overview
US February nonfarm payrolls came in better than expected falling by 36k with the unemployment rate unchanged at 9.7%. The USD extended early gains versus the JPY, firmed versus European currencies and the commodity currencies traded higher after the release of today’s US February unemployment report. January nonfarm payrolls were revised to -26k from -20k in December and December nonfarm payrolls were revised to -109k from -150k. Temporary employment rose by 48k, jobs were created in healthcare services and government, construction and financial services continued to shed jobs in February. The long-term unemployed, those unemployed for 27 weeks or more was unchanged at 6.1mln. Wages rose 0.2% and the average workweek declined to 33.1 hours. The February unemployment report was expected to be worse because of the impact of snowstorms in February. It is unclear what the impact of the February snowstorms had on today’s report. Some analysts argue that if it were not for the bad weather in February US nonfarm payrolls report would have been positive. We may see a significant gain in nonfarm payrolls in the March report due to adjustments for the impact of snowstorms. The divergence in today’s Forex price action may reflect interest rate outlook with the JPY pressured by BOJ ease speculation and USD supported by speculation that today’s better than expected jobs report may bring the timeframe closer for a Fed rate hike. The better than expected jobs report contributes to improving risk sentiment and revives optimism about the global recovery fueling demand for commodity currencies. US traded lower and European currencies turned higher for the day as stocks rise in reaction to today’s unemployment report.

USD traded mixed ahead of today’s release of US figure unemployment with the JPY trading lower in reaction to speculation the BOJ may be considering additional monetary policy ease. Uncertainty about the outlook for Greek debt limits demand for the EUR. German press reports that Germany has no plans to financially aid Greece and Thursday ECB President discouraged Greece from seeking IMF aid. It is not clear if the Greek austerity measures will be enough to reduce concern about contagion risk in the EU. GBP traded mixed and declined to 10 month low versus the EUR despite report that UK PPI rose to a 14 month high. GBP remains vulnerable to concern about UK debt outlook. Commodity currencies traded higher supported by improving risk sentiment as global equity markets rally. In addition, the Canadian government announced a five-year plan to reduce its budget deficit.

Today’s US data:
February unemployment was unchanged at 9.7%, a rating of 9.8% was expected. Nonfarm payrolls dropped by 36k, a decline of 50k was expected.

Upcoming US data:
Next week’s US economic calendar includes the March 10th release of January wholesale inventories and sales. Wholesale inventories are expected to rise by 0.3% compared to a 0.8% decline last month. Wholesale sales are expected unchanged at 0.8%. The February Treasury budget will also be released on March 10th expected at -200bln compared to -193.9bln last month. On March 11th initial jobless claims for week ending 03/06 will released expected at 460k compared to 469k last week. January trade deficit also will be released on March 11th expected at -40.3bln compared to -40.2bln last month. On March 12th February retail sales and March University of Michigan consumer sentiment will be released along with January business inventories. Retail sales are expected flat compared to 0.5% rise last month. Michigan consumer sentiment is expected 73.5 compared to 73.6 last month and business inventories are expected to rise by 0.2% compared to 0.2% decline last month.

JPY
JPY traded sharply lower in reaction to a report in Japanese press that the BOJ is considering additional monetary policy ease and liquidity operations. BOJ ease speculation sparked a 2% rally in the Nikkei. JPY was also pressured by the improvement in risk sentiment as the Nikkei rallied. BOJ ease speculation contributes to a steepening of the Japanese yield curve. JPY Libor rates dropped below US rates for the first time since August. The narrowing of the JPY/USD yield differential makes the US less attractive as a funding currency. Yen Libor rates are at 2.51% and US at 2.52%. Japan’s Finance Minister Kan says recent strength of JPY is attributed to gains versus the EUR sparked by Greek debt worries and that the BOJ is considering further measures to combat deflation. EUR/JPY cross traded 1% higher Friday. JPY was also pressured by diminished Yuan revaluation speculation as China’s PM Wen says that China will not bow to pressure to devalue the Yuan. JPY traded to new lows for the day pressured by reported better than expected US nfp. US yields rose in reaction to the nfp report. Focus turns to next week’s release of Japan’s 1 GDP.

Next week’s Japanese economic calendar includes the March 8th release of January current account expected at ¥0.84trln compared to ¥0.90trln last month. February money supply will also be released on March 8th expected unchanged at 0.2%. On March 9th January leading indicators will be released expected at 3.7% compared to 3.6% last month. On March 10th February CGPI will be released expected to rise by 0.1% compared to 0.3% last month. January machinery orders will be released expected at -5.2% compared to 20.1% last month along with Q4 preliminary GDP expected at 1.1%. On March 12th January revised industrial output will be released expected at 2.5% compared to 1.9% last month.

Key technical levels to watch in USD/JPY include support at 89.15 March 5th low with resistance at 90.55.

EUR
EUR initially traded lower pressured by report of better than expected US February unemployment, ongoing concerns about sovereign debt risk in Greece and steady ECB policy. German press reports that Germany has no plans to aid Greece. ECB President Trichet discouraged Greece from seeking IMF aid. Tensions between Greece and the EU have yet to fully subside despite the announcement of a new Greek austerity plan and positive reception to this week’s Greek ten-year bond auction. Moody’s downgraded Deutsche Bank citing continuing fiscal concerns in the EU. The Deutsche Bank downgrade adds to selling pressure of the EUR. Thursday the ECB elected to hold monetary policy steady as expected and announced that it was extending some liquidity measures. This extension of liquidity measures coupled with today’s better than expected US employment report fuels speculation that US interest may rise sooner than the ECB. There is speculation that EU sovereign debt risks will constrain ECB monetary policy and delay the ECB exit plans. The ECB will return to a variable rate in its three month auctions next month. The ECB will extend its seven day auctions offering unlimited funds until October. EUR was pressured by the ECB decision to extend the seven day auction for this long a period. The trade ignored report that German January manufacturing orders rose by 4.3%. EUR turned higher midsession as stocks extend early gains. EUR remains vulnerable to concern about EU sovereign debt risk and ECB policy outlook.

Next week’s EU economic calendar includes the March 8th release of the March EU Sentix index along with German industrial production. The Sentix index is expected at -7.8 compared to -8.2 last month. January industrial production is expected at -2.8% compared to -2.6% last month. On March 10th EU CPI and current account balance will be released. On March 12th EU January industrial production will be released expected at -1.5% compared to -1.7% last month.

The technical outlook for the EUR is negative. Expect EUR support at 1.3435 the March 2nd low with resistance at 1.3712 the March 4th high.

GBP
GBP traded mixed to higher supported by report that UK PPI rose to a 14 month high and in reaction to stronger equities. GBP gains were limited by concern about UK debt outlook and report of better than expected US February unemployment. UK February PPI rose by 4.1% y/y. Despite the rise in UK PPI the report is unlikely to alter the outlook for steady BOE policy or reduce the odds of the BOE expanding quantitative ease because the BOE expects inflation pressures to weaken in the months ahead. Thursday the BOE elected to hold monetary policy steady and left the level of asset purchases unchanged. The BOE left the door open for expansion of quantitative ease if needed. Concern about the UK budget deficit and uncertainty about the UK election continues. The latest UK election polls show that the Conservatives will fall 11 seats short of a majority. GBP traded sharply lower Tuesday pressured by the latest UK election polls which suggest that the UK may be faced with a hung parliament and may have its first minority government since 1974. A hung parliament may prevent the UK from taking credible action to reduce the UK deficit. Rating agencies have put the UK on notice that if credible action is not taken to reduce the UK deficit the UK AAA sovereign debt rating is at risk or downgrade. GBP may find modest short-term support from the BOE steady policy decision but GBP remains vulnerable to concern about UK debt outlook and uncertainty about the UK economy.

Next week’s UK economic calendar includes the March 9th release of the January trade balance expected at -7.4bln compared to -7.2bln last month along with February retail sales expected at -0.5% compared to -1.8% last month. On March 10th January industrial production will be released and NIESR GDP estimate. The January industrial production is expected at 0.3% compared 0.5% last month. NIESR GDP estimate is expected at 0.3%.

The technical outlook for GBP is mixed as GBP trades back above 1.5000. Expect near-term support at 1.4854 the March 2nd low with resistance at 1.5205 March 2nd high.

CAD
CAD traded higher supported by improving risk sentiment as equity markets rally in reaction to report of better than expected US February unemployment and in reaction to Thursday’s announcement that Canada plans to put a freeze on spending. Thursday Canada’s PM Harper announced a five-year plan to cut spending to bring the Canadian budget back in balance by 2016. CAD is also supported by higher energy prices and shift in BOC policy statement. Crude prices are nearing $82 a barrel. CAD traded higher supported by widening of Canadian and US interest rate swaps. Canadian interest rate swaps widened to a two year high versus US Wednesday. The widening of the swap spread reflects increased speculation that the BOC will hike interest rates before the Fed. BOC rate hike speculation is fueled by last week’s report of stronger than expected Canadian Q4 GDP and Tuesday’s BOC policy statement which downgraded the risk of deflation in Canada. Fed official’s state US rates will remain low for an extended period and the Fed maintained the “extend period” language in its February policy statement.

Next week’s Canadian economic calendar includes the March 8th release of February housing starts expected at 188.8k compared to 186.3k last month. On March 11th Q4 capacity use and January trade balance. Capacity use is expected at 67.9 compared to 67.5 last quarter. The trade balance is expected at 0.50bln compared to -0.25bln last month. On March 12th February unemployment will be released expected unchanged at 8.3% with employment growth expected at 30k compared to 43k last month.

The technical outlook for CAD is positive as USD/CAD trades below 1.0500. Look for near-term support at 1.0249 the January 19th low with resistance at 1.0443 the March 2nd high.

AUD
AUD traded higher Friday supported by improving risk sentiment sparked by BOJ ease speculation and report of better of better than expected US February unemployment. AUD/JPY cross traded almost 2% higher in reaction to a sharp rally in Asian equity markets and report that the BOJ may ease monetary policy. AUD has been reluctant to rally this week despite Tuesday’s RBA rate hike. This reluctance may partly reflect rumors China may be considering another hike on its reserve ratio and possible new tax on property. In Friday’s trade focus has shifted back to risk sentiment and re-flation as equity markets rally and if not for bad weather the US may have seen its nonfarm payrolls turn positive last month. Tuesday the RBA hiked interest rates 25bps to 4%. In the statement accompanying the RBA rate hike the RBA appeared to have a balanced outlook towards inflation, growth and future policy decisions. This has sparked speculation that the RBA may pause its rate hike cycle in April. RBA watcher McCrann that the RBA is likely to pause its rate hike cycle in April. McCrann however still expects the RBA to hike rates to 5% by year end. AUD price direction will focus on risk sentiment in the direction of equity markets.

Next weeks Australian economic calendar includes the March 8th release of ANZ February jobs ads expected at 1% compared to -8.1% last month. On March 10th January housing finance will be released expected at 2.5% compared to -5.5% last month. On March 11th February unemployment will be released expected at 5.2% compared to 5.3% last month with the participation rate unchanged at 65.3

The technical outlook for the AUD is positive as the AUD trades above 9000. Expect AUD support at 8992 the March 5th low with resistance at 9093 the January 25th high.

Source: Easy Forex

My recommended Forex Broker is Forex Yard.

CURRENCY TRADING SUMMARY – 5th March (00:30GMT)

U.S. Dollar Trading (USD) was strong even as stock markets remained positive as the EUR/USD slumped after the ECB announcement and USD/JPY rallied on increasing US Bond Yields. Weekly Jobless Claims improved to 469k vs. 496k. January Pending Home Sales fell -7.2% tracking a broad set of weak housing data in January. In US stocks, DJIA +47 points closing at 10396, S&P +4 points closing at 1122 and NASDAQ +11 points closing at 2292. Looking ahead, February NonFarm Payrolls forecast at -50k vs. -20k previously and the Unemployment rate is forecast at 9.8% vs. 9.7%.

The Euro (EUR) lost ground after the ECB held rates at 1.0% and described the current levels as appropriate with economic growth uneven. EUR/JPY held its own as stock markets improved but EUR/AUD slumped back close to the key 1.50 handle. Also released, Q4 GDP confirmed at 0.1%. Overall the EUR/USD traded with a low of 1.3551 and a high of 1.3714 before closing at 1.3570. Looking ahead, January Factory Orders are forecast at 1.5% vs. -2.3% m/m.

The Japanese Yen (JPY) suffered a major reversal of fortune against the USD with the 3 month Libor turning to the dollars favor for the first time since August 2009. General USD strength and solid crosses also underpinned. GBP/JPY is beginning to rally from 9 month lows at Y132. Overall the USDJPY traded with a low of 88.12 and a high of 89.27 before closing the day around 89.10 in the New York session.

The Sterling (GBP) rallied on heavy GBP/JPY buying in New York to trade above 1.5100 but this was short lived as the Euro fell back late in the day and the pair ended on a slightly weakish footing. EUR/GBP moved lower but is still contained inside the 90-91 range. The BOE held at 0.5% and kept the Asset Purchase Program at 200bn. Overall the GBP/USD traded with a low of 1.5004 and a high of 1.5139 before closing the day at 1.5040 in the New York session. Looking ahead, February PPI input is forecast at 0.25 vs. 2% previously m/m.

The Australian Dollar (AUD) tracked the EURO lower as AUD/JPY broke down through Y80 in early Europe before heavy buying emerged later in New York to keep the AUD/USD near the 0.9000 level. January Trade Balance was at -1.2bn vs. -1.5bn forecast. Overall the AUD/USD traded with a low of 0.8977 and a high of 0.9056 before closing the US session at 0.9040.

Oil & Gold (XAU) fell back as the strong USD discouraged commodity buying. Overall trading with a low of USD$1125 and high of USD$1142 before ending the New York session at USD$1132 an ounce. Held ground as the improving sentiment countered the stronger dollar. Crude Oil was down -$0.30 ending the New York session at $80.60.

TECHNICAL COMMENTARY

Currency	Sup 2	Sup 1	Spot	Res 1	Res 2
EUR/USD	1.3436	1.3552	1.3580	1.3736	1.3788
USD/JPY	87.37	87.74	89.10	89.50	90.36
GBP/USD	1.4855	1.4959	1.5030	1.5136	1.5209
AUD/USD	0.8863	0.8936	0.8995	0.9086	0.9147
XAU/USD	1121.00	1125	1132.00	1144	1161.00
OIL/USD	78.00	80	80.50	82.00	82.50

Euro – 1.3580

Initial support at 1.3552 (Mar 4 low) followed by 1.3436 (Mar 2 low). Initial resistance is now located at 1.3732 (Mar 3 high) followed by 1.3788 (Feb 17 high)

Yen – 89.10

Initial support is located at 87.74 (Dec 10 low) followed by 87.37 (Dec 9 low). Initial resistance is now at 89.50 (Feb 26 high) followed by 90.36 (Feb 23 high).

Pound – 1.5030

Initial support at 1.4959 (Mar 3 low) followed by 1.4855 (Mar 2 low). Initial resistance is now at 1.5136 (Mar 4 high) followed by 1.5209 (Mar 1 low).

Australian Dollar – 0.8995

Initial support at 0.8936 (Mar 1 low) followed by the 0.8863 (Feb 26 low). Initial resistance is now at 0.9086 (Mar 3 high) followed by 0.9147 (Jan 21 high).

Gold – 1132

Initial support at 1125 (Mar 4 low) followed by 1111 (Mar 1 low). Initial resistance is now at 1144 (Mar 3 high) followed by 1161 (Jan 11 high).

Oil – 80.50

Initial support at 80.00 (Intraday Support) followed by 78.00 (Intraday Support). Initial resistance is now at 82.00 (Intraday Resistance) followed by 82.50 (Intraday Resistance).

Source: Easy Forex

My recommended Forex Broker is Forex Yard.