U.S. Dollar Trading (USD) the Dollar was under pressure again last night as stock market’s rallied around the world for a second day. Weekly Jobless Claims jumped to 436k vs. 407k previously but the market was focused on strong performance of European bonds and US home sales data. October Pending Home Sale jumped 10.4% m/m.  In US stocks, DJIA +106 points closing at 11362, S&P +15 points closing at 1221 and NASDAQ +29 points closing at 2579. Looking ahead, November NonFarm Payrolls are forecast at 140k vs. 151k previously. The November Unemployment Rate forecast at 9.6% vs. 9.6% previously.

The Euro (EUR) was strong after talk in the market that the ECB was buying Portuguese bonds aggressively and the ECB announced it was delaying his exit from emergency liquidity after they held rates at 1.0%. EUR/USD traded with a low of 1.3059 and a high of 1.3249 before closing at 1.3206. Looking ahead, October Retail Sales are forecast at 0.2% vs. -0.2%.

The Japanese Yen (JPY) top out again and fell back below Y84 after the USD broadly weakened. Strong risk appetite helped the crosses to small gains however and the market will now wait for the US Nonfarm Payrolls tonight which usually produces a strong reaction on Yen crosses. Overall the USDJPY traded with a low of 83.47 and a high of 84.39 before closing the day around 83.80 in the New York session.

The Sterling (GBP) the cable resumed its aggressive volatility being sold hard at the start of the US session before bouncing with the risk on trading. EUR/GBP is recovering towards 0.8500. Overall the GBP/USD traded with a low of 1.5543 and a high of 1.5651 before closing the day at 1.5610 in the New York session. Looking ahead, November PMI Service 53 vs. 53.2.

The Australian Dollar (AUD) extended Wednesday’s rally back above 0.9700 and developing a buoyant feeling as commodities and stocks rally. Economic data however is weakening with October Retail sales falling -1.1% vs. 0.3% forecast m/m. Overall the AUD/USD traded with a low of 0.9621 and a high of 0.9781 before closing the US session at 0.9760.

Oil & Gold (XAU) tested $1400 but failed and reversing sharply. Overall trading with a low of USD$1382 and high of USD $1399 before ending the New York session at USD$1389 an ounce. Oil traded higher towards the $88 up nearly $5 this week. WTI Oil Closed +$1.21 at $87.96 a barrel.

TECHNICAL COMMENTARY

Currency	Sup 2	Sup 1	Spot	Res 1	Res 2
EUR/USD	1.2830	1.2969	1.3205	1.3354	1.3634
USD/JPY	82.79	83.38	83.75	84.41	85.40
GBP/USD	1.5297	1.5485	1.5580	1.5647	1.5773
AUD/USD	0.9477	0.9537	0.9755	0.9818	0.9890
XAU/USD	1351.00	1362	1389	1410	1424
OIL/USD	85.0	87.00	87.45	88.00	90.00

Euro – 1.3205

Initial support at 1.2969 (Nov 29 low) followed by 1.2830 (76.4% retracement of 1.2588-1.4282). Initial resistance is now located at 1.3354 (Nov 29 high) followed by 1.3634 (Nov 23 high)

Yen – 83.75

Initial support is located at 83.38 (Dec 1 low) followed by 82.79 (Nov 23 low). Initial resistance is now at 85.41 (Oct 5 high) followed by 85.40 (Sept 24 high).

Pound – 1.5580

Initial support at 1.5485 (Nov 29 Low) followed by 1.5297 (Sep 7 low). Initial resistance is now at 1.5648 (Nov 29 high) followed by 1.5773 (Nov 26 high).

Australian Dollar – 0.9755

Initial support at 0.9537 (Dec 1 low) followed by the 0.9477 (50% retrace of 0.8771-1.0183). Initial resistance is now at 0.9818 (Nov 26 high) followed by 0.9890 (Nov 23 high).

Gold – 1389

Initial support at 1362 (Nov 30 low) followed by 1351 (Nov 26 low). Initial resistance is now at 1410 (Nov 12 high) followed by 1424 (Nov 9 high).

Oil – 87.45

Initial support at 87.00 (Intraday Support) followed by 85.00 (Intraday Support). Initial resistance is now at 88.00 (Intraday Resistance) followed by 90.00 (Intraday Resistance).

Written by Anthony Darvall

Source: Easy Forex

Recommended Forex Brokers: AvaFX and Forex Yard

USD in a trading range as US observes Thanks Giving!

• The Dollar Traded quietly during yesterdays US market holiday. The majors traded inside recent ranges with little fresh news to move the markets beyond. Risk aversion took a small break during the day however as the Asian session begun risk aversion trickled back in the market once again pushing the EURUSD back to its lows.  In Asia the focus was on the Korean peninsula standoff which dampened appetite further. US stocks remained unchanged yesterday due to Bank Holiday for Thanks Giving.
• The Euro (EUR) was able to find support at the 1.3300 level with ECM Member Weber stating the Euro is a long term project and that it was possible to increase the size of the EU bailout fund. Euro zone Government Bonds continue to be under pressure with Spanish and Portugal yields rising. EUR/USD traded with a low of 1.3285 and a high of 1.3389 before closing at 1.3335. Looking ahead, German October Import Prices forecast at 0.1% vs. 0.3% previously.

Currency to watch out for: EURUSD & USDJPY

• § The EURUSD pivot point is at 1.3280 with a preference to enter into Long positions at 1.3290
• § The USDJPY pivot point is at 83.50 with a preference to enter Long positions at 83.90

Today’s calendar and market movers:

• § Switzerland KOF Indicator for November forecasted at 2.1
• § Canada Budget Balance for September is out with previous month -5.81 bio

Equity Markets:

• US equities were closed yesterday with a market holiday. The European bourses were positive with the FTSE up at 0.74% the DAX and the CAC closing up at 0.82% and at 0.34% respectively. The NIKKEI and the HSI at the time of writing is -0.4% and -0.98% respectively.

Source: Easy Forex

Recommended Forex Brokers: AvaFX and Forex Yard

Last week’s currency trading review

The Dollar was sold aggressively after the FOMC statement suggested the US Central Banks was considering expanding unconventional easing measures if the US economy weakens further. Stock markets reacted very positively and the market sold the safe haven Dollar against all currencies. The Euro gained over 4 big figures on the combination of short Euro covering and weak USD. The market has now turned net long the Euro for the first time since the European debt crisis but worries still remain as Irish banking sector remains in the spotlight. German September IFO showed a modest bounce to 106.8 vs. a drop to 106.3. The EUR/USD gained +3.26% closing at 1.3488, after opening the week at 1.3048.

The Japanese Yen the effects of the BOJ intervention waned as little follow through buying emerged and the market took advantage of the higher levels to sell more USD. The Japanese government has warned it will intervene again if they feel the market moves are too one sided. The USD/JPY fell -1.96% closing at 84.20 vs. 85.85 previously. The GBP did extremely well rallying to month highs on improving investor risk appetite. The market has broken topside resistance and is looking to retest 1.6000 in coming days. MPC Meeting minutes showed an 8-1 split as expected with BoE Member Sentence once again voting for a rate hike. The GBP/USD gained +1.21% closing at 1.5821 after opening at 1.5630. The AUD traded at fresh year highs after the US rate meeting and continued to press higher tracking the rally in stock markets. September RBA minutes were very hawkish stating above trend growth would have to be managed with monetary policy. Analysts are now expecting future rate hikes this year and potential for the Aussie to reach parity.  The AUD/USD gained +2.40% closing at 0.9590 after opening at 0.9360.

The Forex Trading Week Preview

In the States; On Tuesday, September Consumer Confidence is forecast at 52.5 vs. 53.5 previously. On Thursday, Q2 GDP forecast unchanged at 1.6% Q/Q. Weekly Jobless Claims are forecast at 458k vs. 565k previously. On Friday, August Core PCE is forecast at 0.1% m/m and Personal Income is forecast at 0.3%. Also released, Sept ISM Manufacturing is forecast at 54.5 vs. 56.3 previously. We will provide our previews and reviews of these data releases in the daily summary.

In the Eurozone; On Tuesday, German CPI is forecast at 1.3% y/y. On Thursday, German Unemployment is forecast at 7.6% in September. On Friday, August Retail Sales are forecast at 3.6% y/y. In the UK, On Tuesday, Q2 GDP is forecast at 1.2% q/q. On Wednesday, September GFK Consumer Confidence is forecast at -18 vs. -18 previously. On Friday, Sept PMI Manufacturing is forecast at 54 vs. 54.3 previously. We will provide our previews and reviews of these data releases in the daily summary.

In Japan; On Wednesday, Q3 Tankan Survey is forecast at 7 vs. 1 previously.  In Australia; On Thursday, August Building Approvals is forecast at 0.0% vs. 2.3% previously. Also released, RBA Financial Stability review released. We will provide our previews and reviews of these data releases in the daily summary.

TECHNICAL COMMENTARY

Currency	Sup 2	Sup 1	Spot	Res 1	Res 2
EUR/USD	1.2919	1.3248	1.3475	1.3493	1.3818
USD/JPY	82.88	84.04	84.30	85.93	86.70
GBP/USD	1.5297	1.5449	1.5820	1.5844	1.5999
AUD/USD	0.9314	0.9442	0.9600	0.9615	0.9850
XAU/USD	1232.00	1263	1297	1300	1324
OIL/USD	72.50	75.00	76.70	78.00	80.00

Euro – 1.3475

Initial support at 1.3248 (Sep 22 low) followed by 1.2919 (Sep 6 low). Initial resistance is now located at 1.3493 (Sept 24 High) followed by 1.3818 (Mar 17 high)

Yen – 84.30

Initial support is located at 84.04 (61.8% retrace of 1.5999-1.5297) followed by 82.88 (Sept 15 low). Initial resistance is now at 85.93 (Sep 16 high) followed by 86.70 (38.2% retrace of 92.89-81.88).

Pound – 1.5820

Initial support at 1.5449 (Sept 15 low) followed by 1.5297 (Sep 7 low). Initial resistance is now at 1.5844 (Sep 24 high) followed by 1.5999 (Aug 6 high).

Australian Dollar – 0.9600

Initial support at 0.9442 (Sept 21 low) followed by the 0.9314 (Sep 14 low). Initial resistance is now at 0.9615 (Sep 24 high) followed by 0.9850 (July 15, 2008 high).

Gold – 1297

Initial support at 1263 (Sept 15 low) followed by 1232 (Aug 31 low). Initial resistance is now at 1300 (Round Number) followed by 1324 (1263.20 plus 1.618 of 1236.80-1274.95).

Oil – 76.70

Initial support at 75.00 (Intraday Support) followed by 72.50 (Intraday Support). Initial resistance is now at 78 (Intraday Resistance) followed by 80.00 (Intraday Resistance).

Written by Anthony Darvall

Source: Easy Forex

Recommended Forex Brokers: AvaFX and Forex Yard

The Dollar traded weaker overnight giving up most of yesterday’s gains as Asian equities rebounded. However with US stocks remaining under pressure and Euro Zone peripheral risks resurfacing the Dollar may resume its strength across the board as safe haven appetite comes back. Weekly Jobless Claims caused concern again at 484 vs. 465k and is creeping higher in recent weeks. The DJIA traded down -58 points closing at 10320 and the S&P traded down -5 indicating fear over the pace of US economic growth. Looking ahead, July Retail Sales are expected to come in at 0.5% vs.-0.5% previously. Also released, August Consumer Confidence forecast at 69.3 vs. 67.8 previously. USDJPY price action yesterday was between 84.93 – 86.18.

European banking concerns remained in the spotlight as well as renewed fears over the funding abilities of EU peripheral economies such as Ireland and lower than expected GDP growth for Greece which spooked the markets. As fears intensified Euro crosses were sold across the board whilst the JPY, CHF and USD benefited due to safe haven demand. EUR/JPY was volatile on Japanese intervention fears but a rally in Asia was sold aggressively in Europe after weak economic data. June Industrial Production fell -0.1% vs. 0.7% forecast. EUR/USD traded with a low of 1.2781 and a high of 1.2934 before closing at 1.2830. Looking ahead, Q2 German GDP forecast at 1.3% vs.0.2% previously and Q2 EU GDP forecast at 0.7% vs. 0.2% previously.

Currency to watch out for: EURUSD & USDJPY

• The EURUSD pivot point is at 1.2900 with a preference to enter into Short positions at 1.2890
• The USDJPY pivot point is at 85.75 with a preference to enter Long positions at 85.80

Today’s calendar and market movers:

• Germany GDP Q2 is forecasted at 1.3%
• Euro Zone GDP for Q2 is forecasted at 0.7%
• United States Retail Sales for July is expected at 0.5%
• Michigan Sentiment for August is expected at 69.3

Equity Markets:

US equities closed negative yesterday with the S&P500 at -0.54% and the DJIA at -0.57%. The European bourses were mixed with the FTSE up 0.4% the DAX and the CAC closing at -0.31% and -0.20% respectively. The NIKKEI and the HSI at the time of writing is 0.47% and 0.07% respectively.

Source: Easy Forex

Recommended Forex Brokers: AvaFX and Forex Yard

Markets brace themselves for the upcoming NFP!

• The Dollar traded in a quieter than usual day. Trading the USD was slightly weaker after the Euro rallied and the USD/JPY failed to hold above Y86. Weekly Jobless Claims were are 479k vs. 455k forecast and helped the USD remain supported against risk currencies ahead of tonight NFP report. In US stocks, the DJIA closed -5 points at 10675, the S&P down -1 points closing at 1125. Looking ahead, July Non Farm Employment Change forecast at -65k vs. -125k previously. Unemployment Rate is forecast at 9.6% vs. 9.5%previously.The Euro rallied to day highs after some strong June German Factory orders at 3.2%m/m at the start of Europe. The ECB held at 1.0% as expected but Trichet was more upbeat and helped support the Euro for the rest of the day. EUR/USD traded with a low of 1.3118 and a high of 1.3237 before closing at 1.3180. Looking ahead, June Industrial Output is forecast at 0.7% vs. 2.6% previously.

Currency to watch out for: EURUSD & USDJPY

• § The EURUSD pivot point is at 1.3145 with a preference to enter into Long positions at 1.3155
• § The USDJPY pivot point is at 85.70 with a preference to enter Long positions at 85.75

Today’s calendar and market movers:

• § GBP Retail Sales for June expected to increase 0.5%
• § US Initial unemployment Claims expected at 445k
• § US FED Chairman Bernanke Speech
• § US Existing home sales units for June expected at 5.18 Million

Equity Markets:

• US equities closed negative yesterday with the S&P500 at -0.13% and the DJIA at -0.05%. The European bourses were mixed with the FTSE down -0.38% the DAX and the CAC closing at 0.04% and 0.09% respectively. The NIKKEI and the HSI at the time of writing is -0.50% and -0.18% respectively.

Source: Easy Forex

Recommended Forex Brokers: AvaFX and Forex Yard

ECB and BoE leave interest rates unchanged!

• The dollar weakened yesterday as risk appetite kicked-in following ECB President Trichet’s press conference. The ECB monetary stance had not altered however Trichet’s upbeat attitude permeated confidence across the board. The Euro Zone, Trichet’s says, was growing at a moderate pace and that the latest string of data was very good. He also highlighted that the markets have tended to be extremely pessimistic about the European economy however data have not confirmed such a stance. When quizzed about the stress tests however he was reluctant to provide further information saying that everything they wanted to know would be addressed in the release date of the stress tests. Some market participants are arguing that the stress tests are not stringent enough and the results will not bring the necessary confidence in the markets. Others argue that the release of certain scenarios may show that some banks are insolvent and spark another bout to safety in the expense of the financial system. Overall price action in the EURUSD was between 1.2617 – 1.2710.
• In the UK we had the BoE policy rate decision which left interest rates unchanged as widely expected. The GBPUSD had made considerable headway this week following the MPC minutes that showed one member of the BoE diverged from the rest voting for a rate hike. Although economic strength is not supportive for rate hikes a string of higher than expected inflation is worrisome and may deem the need for a hike so as to tame such fears. Industrial production figures were released yesterday which were widely encouraging. The year on year figure came in at 2.6% and the month on month at 0.7% indicating a pickup in activity and casting some hope over the economy. The big fear for UK growth now is the deficit reductions undergone by the new government. Let it be known that almost half of the UK economy equates to the size of government expenditure and a sharp reduction in this spending may jeopardize UK growth. GBPUSD price action was between 1.5173 – 1.5130.

Currency to watch out for: EURUSD & USDJPY

• The EURUSD pivot point is at 1.2620 with a preference to enter into Long positions at 1.263
• The USDJPY pivot point is at 88.25 with a preference to enter Long positions at 88.30

Today’s calendar and market movers:

• German CPI is expected at 0.9%
• The UK Trade Balance is expected to come to GBP -7 Bn
• Canadian Unemployment is estimated at 8.1%
• Finally, US wholesale Sales are expected at 0.5%

Equity Markets:

• US equities were closed positive yesterday with the S&P500 closing at 0.94% and the DJIA closing at 1.20%. The European bourses were positive yesterday with the FTSE up 1.81% the DAX and the CAC closing at 0.71 % and 1.57% respectively. The NIKKEI and the HSI at the time of writing is 0.72% and 1.45% respectively.

Source: Easy Forex

Recommended Forex Brokers: AvaFX and Forex Yard

US Non Farm Payrolls expected at -110K!

The dollar weakened across the board yesterday as global growth concerns were in the limelight ahead of today’s NFP report. Manufacturing ISM disappointed by dropping to 56.2 pending home sales fell by 30%, construction spending down by -0.2% and we also had an increase in initial jobless claims to 472K. Overall rate hike expectations have been pushed out to 2011 and the USD has lost its safe haven status to the JPY. Today the market is focusing on payrolls with an expectation of -110k jobs been lost. USDJPY price action yesterday was between 1.2200 – 1.2540.

In Europe we saw some positive bond auctions from France and Spain and an ECB 6 day tender of Eur 112 bio to 78 EU banks as a bridge loan so as to roll over future debt maturities. Economic data has remained relatively stable in the EU with Manufacturing PMI coming in line with expectations at 55.6. Overall price action for the EURUSD was very strong as the combination of successful bond auctions by member states, and the weak economic data from the US push the EURUSD to 1.2540 as a bout of short covering took hold and short term specs could not help themselves from adding to the momentum.

Currency to watch out for: EURUSD & USDJPY

• § The EURUSD pivot point is at 1.2450 with a preference to enter into Long positions at 1.2460
• § The USDJPY pivot point is at 88.25 with a preference to enter Short positions at 88.20

Today’s calendar and market movers:

• § Eurozone Unemployment rate for May expected at 10.1%
• § US Unemployment rate for June expected at 9.8%
• § Non Farm payrolls for June expected at -110K

Equity Markets:

US equities closed negative yesterday with the S&P500 down by -0.32% and the DJIA down by -0.42%. The European bourses were negative yesterday with the FTSE down -2.29% the DAX and the CAC closing at -1.81% and -2.99% respectively. The NIKKEI and the HSI at the time of writing is 0.13% and -1.38% respectively.

Source: Easy Forex

Recommended Forex Brokers: AvaFX and Forex Yard

Pound Skids to 10 Month Low

CURRENCY TRADING SUMMARY – 2nd March (00:30GMT)

U.S. Dollar Trading (USD) had a mixed day with strength against the Pound and Euro not being replicated against risk currencies such as CAD and AUD which tracked stock markets higher. February ISM manufacturing slipped to 56.5 vs. 57.5 forecast. In US stocks DJIA +78 points closing at 10400, S&P +11 points closing at 1115 and NASDAQ +35 points closing at 2273. Looking ahead, Weekly Redbook previously at 1.6% m/m.

The Euro (EUR) enjoyed support in Asia on the back of proposed debt bailout of Greece but there was little follow through in Europe when no new information was released. The pair was subsequently pulled lower from heavy Cable Sales. Overall the EUR/USD traded with a low of 1.3459 and a high of 1.3659 before closing at 1.3570. Looking ahead, January PPI is forecast at 0.6% vs. 0.1% m/m previously.

The Japanese Yen (JPY) stayed within Friday’s range with most of the action kept to the crosses with GBP/JPY slumping to 10 month lows near Y132. AUD/JPY outperformed closing above the key Y80 level. Overall the USDJPY traded with a low of 88.71 and a high of 89.50 before closing the day around 89.10 in the New York session. Looking ahead, January Unemployment is forecast at 5.2% vs. 5.1% previously.

The Sterling (GBP) crashed as key supports were broken and buyers capitulated in a stoploss fueled 400 pip fall. GBP/AUD hit 25 year lows below 1.66 and EUR/GBP soared over 0.9000 to touch 0.9150 in major moves across the board. GBP/USD recovered during the US session but the sentiment is still very bearish. Overall the GBP/USD traded with a low of 1.4781 and a high of 1.5206 before closing the day at 1.4990 in the New York session.

The Australian Dollar (AUD) stayed close to the key 0.9000 level on AUD/USD supported on dips by strong Gold and risk appetite. Traders stayed on the sidelines ahead of the RBA meeting today and January Retail Sales. Overall the AUD/USD traded with a low of 0.8933 and a high of 0.9018 before closing the US session at 0.9005. January Retail Sales are forecast at 0.5% vs. -0.7% m/m. Also released, March RBA Meeting forecast to hike 0.25%.

Oil & Gold (XAU) kept to a quiet range tracking the broader changes in USD strength. Overall trading with a low of USD$1111 and high of USD$1124 before ending the New York session at USD$1117 an ounce. Fell back on weak US manufacturing data and the stronger Dollar. Crude Oil was down -$1.24 ending the New York session at $78.42.

TECHNICAL COMMENTARY

Currency	Sup 2	Sup 1	Spot	Res 1	Res 2
EUR/USD	1.3424	1.3451	1.3555	1.3692	1.3788
USD/JPY	88.56	88.75	89.05	90.36	91.29
GBP/USD	1.4610	1.4704	1.4980	1.5209	1.5317
AUD/USD	0.8801	0.8863	0.8995	0.9071	0.9093
XAU/USD	1088.00	1104	1117.00	1131	1141.00
OIL/USD	77.00	78	78.70	80.00	82.50

Euro – 1.3555

Initial support at 1.3451 (Feb 25 low) followed by 1.3424 (May 18 low). Initial resistance is now located at 1.3692 (Feb 23 high) followed by 1.3788 (Feb 17 high)

Yen – 89.05

Initial support is located at 88.75 (Feb 26 low) followed by 88.56 (Feb 4 low). Initial resistance is now at 90.36 (Feb 24 high) followed by 91.29 (Feb 23 high).

Pound – 1.4980

Initial support at 1.4704 (Apr 30 low) followed by 1.4610 (April 29 low). Initial resistance is now at 1.5209 (Mar 1 high) followed by 1.5317 (Feb 26 low).

Australian Dollar – 0.8995

Initial support at 0.8863 (Feb 26 low) followed by the 0.8801 (Feb 25 low). Initial resistance is now at 0.9071 (Feb 23 high) followed by 0.9093 (Jan 25 high).

Gold – 1117

Initial support at 1104 (Feb 26 low) followed by 1088 (Feb 25 low). Initial resistance is now at 1131 (Feb 22 high) followed by 1141 (Jan 20 high).

Oil – 78.70

Initial support at 78.00 (Intraday Support) followed by 77.00 (Intraday Support). Initial resistance is now at 80.00 (Intraday Resistance) followed by 82.50 (Intraday Resistance).

Source: Easy Forex

My recommended Forex Broker is Forex Yard.