Euro steadied ahead of the EU summit

• The dollar paused its rally on Thursday as US Treasury prices edged higher. On Wednesday, the US dollar rose against a basket of currencies supported by rising US Treasury yields. Jobless Claims and Manufacturing index are expected later today.
• The euro appears steadied on Thursday’s European trade after it plummeted on Wednesday weighed by rating agency Moody’s which said it was considering downgrading Spain’s sovereign debt. EU leaders are discussing a persistent debt crisis and possible methods to prevent a euro zone debt contagion in an end of year meeting on Thursday and Friday. The single currency is trading in a tight range between 1.3200-1.3233 versus the dollar well below a three week high of 1.3497 hit on Tuesday. The pair is currently trading at 1.3233 dollars.
• Higher US Treasury yields pushed the dollar up to three-month highs versus the Japanese Yen on Wednesday hitting 84.50. USD/JPY is now trading at 84.22 yen. The Swiss franc fell on Thursday ahead of Switzerland’s interest rate decision.

Currency to watch out for: EURUSD & USDJPY

• § The EURUSD pivot point is at 1.3275 with a preference to enter into Short positions at 1.3265
• § The USDJPY pivot point is at 83.90 with a preference to enter Long positions at 83.95

Today’s calendar and market movers:

• § Switzerland’s Interest Rate decision
• § UK Retail Sales in November is forecasted at 0.5%
• § US Initial Jobless Claims is forecasted at 425K
• § US Fed Manufacturing Index for December is forecasted at 14.1

Equity Markets:

US equities closed down on Wednesday with the S&P500 at -0.51% and the DJIA down at -0.17%. The European bourses traded down as well with the FTSE traded down -0.51% the DAX and the CAC down at -0.16% and -0.58% respectively. The NIKKEI and the HSI at the time of writing is trading at 0.01% and -0.58% respectively.

Source: Easy Forex

Recommended Forex Brokers: AvaFX and Forex Yard

Consumer confidence surprises the market coming at 57.7!

• Markets yesterday were of the V variety across the board. Equity markets along with risk currencies started the day with eerie risk aversion building momentum as fears from the Spanish banking sector continued to weigh on the markets. We also saw a lack of unity between European member states as Germany was against the issuance of a joint EUR bond as it would ”reward states pursuing wrong policies”. Reports also surfaced that Germany’s Finance Ministry is proposing an extension on the short selling ban in Germany to more securities. From the financial calendar however we saw industrial orders come in at a 5.2% increase and the ECB announced that it will absorb EUR 2.6bio in one week fixed term deposits. EURUSD price action was between 1.2177 – 1.2386.
• In the US we had the FOMC minutes show that 3 regional Fed banks are in favor of the first rate hike by 25bp to 1% as it would restore the pre crisis discount rate structure. The highlight of the day however was the Consumer confidence index which beat expectations in May and came in at 63.3 compared to an expectation of 57.7 effectively the equity markets erased all loses and closed at 0.04%. We also had a good Case Shiller (S&P) which came in at 0.3% growth for the month. USDJPY price action yesterday was between 89.25 – 90.48.
• In the UK we saw the release of the quarterly GDP report which showed a 0.3% growth meeting expectations. There was a reduction in government spending by 0.5% for the quarter and private consumption was flat. Price action in the pound yesterday was between 1.4258 – 1.4448.

Currency to watch out for: EURUSD & USDJPY

• § The EURUSD pivot point is at 1.2400 with a preference to enter into Short positions at 1.2390
• § The USDJPY pivot point is at 89.90 with a preference to enter Long positions at 89.95

Today’s calendar and market movers:

• § US Durable Goods Orders for April is forecasted at 1.3%
• § New Home Sales for April is expected at 0.43 mio
• § US Crude Oil inventories for the week expected at 0.2 mio

Equity Markets:

• US equities closed mixed yesterday with the DJIA and the SP500 closing -0.23%% and 0.04% respectively.  The European bourses were negative yesterday with the FTSE closing -2.54% the DAX and the CAC closing down at -2.34% and -2.90%. The NIKKEI and the HSI at the time of writing is 0.78% and 1.20% respectively.

Source: Easy Forex

Recommended Forex Brokers: AvaFX and Forex Yard

CURRENCY TRADING SUMMARY – 4th March (00:30GMT)

U.S. Dollar Trading (USD) the market reacted well to the new Greece Austerity measures in Europe and the Euro led the majors higher against the greenback. Adding to the positive sentiment was the February ISM Services PMI at 53 vs. 51 forecast. February ADP Employment report was a relief at -20k as forecast. In US stocks, DJIA -9 points closing at 10396, S&P +1 points closing at 1118 and NASDAQ -1 points closing at 2280. Looking ahead, Weekly Jobless Claims are forecast at 470k vs. 496k previously. January Factory Orders are forecast at 1.8% vs. 1.0% previously. Finally, January Pending Home Sales are forecast at 1%.

The Euro (EUR) with over $6bn in new budget cuts announced from Greece the market took another leg higher breaking above resistance at 1.3700. EUR/GBP was volatile as the market rejected 0.9100 and Pound found strength on good data. Overall the EUR/USD traded with a low of 1.3591 and a high of 1.3737 before closing at 1.3700. Looking ahead, ECB Rate Announcement forecast to remain at 1.0%.

The Japanese Yen (JPY) Euro inspired USD weakness hurt the major as it broke below support at 88.50 and the gradual decline continued. Crosses held their ground and most finished with small gains. AUD/JPY continues to hold above Y80 and is one of the most closely watch trades for overall investor risk appetite. Overall the USDJPY traded with a low of 88.30 and a high of 89.02 before closing the day around 88.45 in the New York session.

The Sterling (GBP) broke above 1.5000 in Asia as the recovery continued and Europe continued with the theme as Economic data impressed. February Services PMI jumped to 58 vs 55. Also strong, February Nationwide Consumer Confidence at 80 vs. 71 previously. Overall the GBP/USD traded with a low of 1.4974 and a high of 1.5134 before closing the day at 1.5100 in the New York session. Looking ahead, BOE rate Announcement.

The Australian Dollar (AUD) was quiet as profit taking on the major in the high 0.90′s capped gains and traders looked to the crosses for action. AUD/NZD broke to fresh decade highs above 1.3000 and quickly ran up to the 1.31 level. Q4 GDP came in at 0.9% q/q as forecast. Overall the AUD/USD traded with a low of 0.9007 and a high of 0.9088 before closing the US session at 0.9035. Looking ahead, January Trade Balance is forecast at -1.5bn vs. -2.25bn.

Oil & Gold (XAU) took advantage of USD weakness to trade above $1140 for the first time since January. Overall trading with a low of USD$1131 and high of USD$1145 before ending the New York session at USD$1139 an ounce. Crude Oil broke above $80 on Bullish US inventories data. Crude Oil was up +$1.27 ending the New York session at $80.95.

TECHNICAL COMMENTARY

Currency	Sup 2	Sup 1	Spot	Res 1	Res 2
EUR/USD	1.3424	1.3436	1.3705	1.3788	1.3839
USD/JPY	87.37	88.25	88.45	89.50	90.36
GBP/USD	1.4784	1.4855	1.5100	1.5209	1.5317
AUD/USD	0.8863	0.8936	0.9055	0.9093	0.9147
XAU/USD	1104.00	1111	1139.00	1146	1161.00
OIL/USD	78.00	80	80.80	82.00	82.50

Euro – 1.3705

Initial support at 1.3436 (Mar 2 low) followed by 1.3424 (may 18 low). Initial resistance is now located at 1.3692 (Feb 23 high) followed by 1.3788 (Feb 17 high)

Yen – 88.45

Initial support is located at 88.25 (0.618 of 84.83-93.77) followed by 87.37 (Dec 9 low). Initial resistance is now at 89.50 (Feb 26 high) followed by 90.36 (Feb 23 high).

Pound – 1.5100

Initial support at 1.4855 (Mar 2 low) followed by 1.4784 (Mar 1 low). Initial resistance is now at 1.5209 (Mar 1 high) followed by 1.5317 (Feb 26 low).

Australian Dollar – 0.9055

Initial support at 0.8936 (Mar 1 low) followed by the 0.8863 (Feb 26 low). Initial resistance is now at 0.9093 (Jan 25 high) followed by 0.9147 (Jan 21 high).

Gold – 1139

Initial support at 1111 (Mar 1low) followed by 1104 (Feb 26 low). Initial resistance is now at 1146 (Jan 14 high) followed by 1161 (Jan 11 high).

Oil – 80.80

Initial support at 80.00 (Intraday Support) followed by 78.00 (Intraday Support). Initial resistance is now at 82.00 (Intraday Resistance) followed by 82.50 (Intraday Resistance).

Source: Easy Forex

My recommended Forex Broker is Forex Yard.