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Daily Forex Report – USD higher, Q4 GDP expanded by 5.7%, best in six years

Here are the latest Financial News:

• USD: Higher, US Q4 GDP confirms faster growth, bond yields rise, consumer sentiment beats expectations
• JPY: Lower, Japan’s deflation accelerates, pressure on BOJ to ease, threat of intervention
• EUR: Lower, concern Greek fiscal troubles may spread, EU unemployment and CPI rise
• GBP: Lower, S&P says UK banking system less stable, UK house prices rise
• CAD and AUD: AUD lower & CAD mixed, India hikes its reserve ratio 75 bps

Overview
USD traded mixed ahead of today’s release of Q4 GDP. JPY was pressured by report of accelerating deflation in Japan and comments from the BOJ governor which suggests that the BOJ is ready to act against potential market turmoil. European currencies were mixed initially pressured by fresh concern about sovereign debt risk in non-core European countries with the GBP pressured by an S&P report which says UK banks are less stable. EUR downside was limited by report that the EU may be preparing a bailout for Greece. GDP downside was limited by report of rising UK house price. CHF rallied in reaction to report of better than expected KOF leading indicators. Commodity currencies traded higher rebounding from initial pressure sparked by weaker Asian equity market trade with support from statement from Chinese officials that they will keep monetary policy loose despite rising price pressures and better than expected GDP reports in the US and Canada. AUD gains were limited by speculation the RBA may be nearing a pause in its tightening cycle.

US economic data was positive with advanced Q4 GDP confirming faster US growth at the end of 2009 and Chicago PMI rising more than expected. Despite the acceleration of growth in the fourth quarter economists are concerned that the economic rebound may not be sustainable as fiscal and monetary stimulus is withdrawn and recent economic data shows the recovery in housing and retail demand slowing. Much of the improvement in Q4 GDP was due to increased auto production and rebuilding of inventories. Consumer spending and business investments remain weak. USD traded higher after release of stronger than expected GDP. The GDP report may have some analysts looking for an earlier FOMC rate hike. The GDP deflator however came out below expectations which suggest that inflationary pressures remain tame despite improving growth. Focus turns to central bank policy meetings in Australia Tuesday and Europe Thursday and Fridays US January unemployment report. The RBA is expected to hike rates 25 bps to 4%, the ECB is expected to remain on hold and continue to outline exit strategies and the BOE is expected to remain on hold as well with the possibility of announcing a pause in its asset purchase program. USD headline unemployment is expected to post a 0.1% rise to 10.1% and nonfarm payrolls may turn slightly positive.

Today’s US data:
Advanced Q4 GDP rose by 5.7%, reading of 4.5% was expected. January Chicago PMI rose to 61.5, a reading of 57.5 is expected. Final Michigan consumer sentiment rose to 74.4, a reading of 73 is expected.

Upcoming US data:
Next week’s US economic calendar includes the February 1st release of December personal income and consumption. Personal income is expected to rise by 0.3% compared to 0.4% last month and consumption is expected to be up by 0.1% compared to flat last month. January ISM index will also be released on February 1st expected at 55.5 compared to 55.9 last month. On February 2nd December pending home sales index will be released expected at 97.1 along with domestic auto sales for January. On February 3rd January ADP employment will be released expected -54k compared to -84k last month. January ISM non manufacturing index will also be released on February 3rd expected at 51 compared to 50.1 last month. On February 4th initial jobless claims for week ending 01/30 will be released expected for 465k compared for 470k last month. Q4 labor productivity, unit labor costs and December factory orders will also be released on February 4th. Q4 productivity is expected at 5% compared to 8.1% last quarter, unit labor costs are expected at -2% compared to -2.5% last quarter and factor orders are expected to rise by 0.8% compared to 1.1% last quarter. On February 5th January unemployment rate and nonfarm payrolls will be released. The unemployment rate is expected to rise by 0.1% to 10.1% and nonfarm payrolls expected at -5k compared to -85k last month. December consumer credit will also be released on February 5th expected at -8bln compared to -17.5bln last month.

JPY
JPY traded lower pressured by a number of factors that include report of accelerating deflationary pressures in Japan, BOJ ease speculation threat of intervention and stronger than expected US Q4 GDP. Japan’s economic data was mixed with December core CPI reported to have declined by 1.3%. The drop in Japan’s core CPI confirms acceleration of deflationary pressures and elicited comments from the new Japanese government that the BOJ must take action to combat deflationary pressures. Japan’s Finance Minister Kan says the BOJ should work in line with government policies to fight deflation. BOJ Governor Shirakawa said that all options are open but the current level of bond purchases is appropriate. Japan’s December industrial production rose by 2.2%, December unemployment was at 5.1%, household spending rose 1% and December housing starts fell by 15.7%. January manufacturing PMI declined to a seven month low at 52.5. BOJ minutes for the December 17th – 18th policy meeting indicate that a number of board members favor lowering interest rates as a way to support growth. BOJ Governor Shirkawa said that the central bank is prepared to fight market turmoil. Shirakawa’s comments increase the risk of intervention. JPY traded to the lows for the day after the release of stronger than expected US Q4 GDP. The GDP report sparked demand for equities and reduced safe haven flows to the JPY.

Next week’s Japanese economic calendar includes the February 5th release of December preliminary leading indicators expected 2% compared to 1.7% last month. On February 8th December current account will be released along with January money supply.

Key technical levels to watch in USD/JPY include support at 89.58 the January 29th low with resistance at 91.88 the January 21st high.

EUR
EUR traded lower pressured by ongoing concern about the fiscal outlook in non core European countries and in reaction to report of stronger than expected US Q4 GDP. The cost to insure against Greek debt default continues to rise and this is raising concern about sovereign debt risk in Greece generating fears that these risks may spread to other European countries. Greek EU 10 year bond spread was at its widest level since Greece adopted the EUR in 2001. EUR downside was limited by report that the EU may be preparing a bailout for Greece. EU economic data was mixed with January CPI reported up 1%, December unemployment at 10% and December M3 reported to have declined by 0.2%. These reports are unlikely to change the outlook for steady ECB policy. ECB’s Bini Smaghi said that the timing of exit strategies depends on the strength of the economic recovery. EU turned lower after release of stronger than expected US Q4 GDP which posted its largest rise since Q3 of 2003. For the time being it looks as though FX markets are returning focus to fundamentals as the correlation between improving risk appetite and weaker USD broke down in Friday’s trade. Concern about sovereign debt risks in peripheral European countries is the main risk for the EUR. The next major focus for EUR trade will be the February 4th ECB policy meeting. The ECB is expected to hold monetary policy unchanged and continue to gradually withdraw liquidity.

Next week’s EU economic calendar includes the February 1st release of EU January manufacturing PMI expected at 51.3 compared to 51.6 last month. ECB will hold a policy meeting Thursday, February 4th. No policy change is expected. The ECB is expected to confirm the continuing drawdown of unconventional liquidity measures.

The technical outlook for the EUR is negative as the EUR trades below 1.4000. Expect EUR support at 1.3830 the June 22nd low with resistance at 1.4096 the January 27th high.

GBP
GBP traded lower pressured by S&P report that the UK banking system is less stable. GBP rebounded in reaction to report of stronger than expected UK house price rise. The S&P report on UK banks is troubling because it may make it more difficult for the BOE to exit quantitative ease and could discourage demand for UK bonds making it more difficult for the UK to finance its deficit. UK January house prices rose by 1.2% and January GFK consumer confidence was at -17 compared to -19 last month. GBP has been outperforming of late supported by speculation that rising UK inflation and improving UK economic outlook may encourage the BOE to pause in its asset purchase plan. UK December CPI rose by 2.9%. BOE’s Sentance said that the BOE may have to consider raising rates sometime this year. GBP has also been benefiting from statements by UK Chancellor Darling that the UK has a plan to reduce its deficit by half over the next four years. Ratings agencies have warned that the UK AAA sovereign debt rating is at risk if the UK does not reduce its deficit. GBP turned lower after release of better than expected US Q4 GDP failing to benefit from rising equities or improving risk sentiment.

Next week’s UK economic calendar includes the February 1st release of January CIPS manufacturing PMI expected 54.4 compared to 54.1 last month along with December consumer credit, money supply, mortgage approvals and mortgage lending. Consumer credit is expected at -0.345bln compared to -0.376bln last month, mortgage applications are expected at 61,000 compared to 60,518 last month and mortgage lending is expected at 1.479bln compared to 1.459bln last month. Money supply is expected -0.8% compared to -1.1% last month. BOE will hold a monetary policy meeting on February 4th. No policy change is expected. The trade will be looking to see whether the BOE elects to pause in its asset purchase plan.

The technical outlook for GBP is mixed to positive as GBP holds above 1.6000. Expect near-term support at 1.5900 the January 7th low with resistance at 1.6277 the January 28th high.

CAD
CAD traded higher supported by improving risk appetite as equities rally in reaction to report of  stronger than expected US and Canadian GDP. Canada’s November GDP rose by 0.4%. The trade had expected a 0.2% rise. CAD was also supported by report that China plans to continue with loose monetary policy despite rising prices. CAD had been weakening in reaction to concern that tightening of monetary policy in China could hurt demand for global exports and slow the global recovery. Thursday the Baltic Freight Index declined by 5% which may be an indication global demand is slowing. CAD gains were limited by report of weaker than expected Canadian producer prices. Canada’s December IPPI declined by 0.1%, a 0.4% rise was expected and RMPI declined by 1.7%, a 1.2% rise was expected. The decline in Canada’s producer prices fits with last weeks report of weaker than expected Canadian CPI and reflects lower energy prices and the impact of strong CAD. Weaker than expected inflationary pressures in Canada will limit the risk of an earlier BOC rate hike. The BOC has pledged to maintain low yields through June of 2010 provided inflation remains in check.

Next week’s Canadian economic calendar includes the February 4th release of December building permits.

The technical outlook for CAD is mixed as USD/CAD consolidates above 1.0600. Look for near-term support at 1.0465 the January 22nd low with resistance at 1.0696 the January 29th high.

AUD
AUD traded mixed to lower initially pressured by weaker Asian equity market trade. AUD posted a modest rebound in reaction to a statement from a Chinese official that China will continue with loose monetary policy despite rising price pressures and in reaction to report of stronger than expected US Q4 GDP.US Q4 GDP encouraged a rally in US equities and uptick in risk appetite. The rebound in the AUD was limited as US bond yields rise in reaction to the stronger GDP data and USD benefits form improving fundamentals. The rise in US bond yields helps to close the AUD yield gap advantage. Today’s AUD price action was somewhat disappointing in light of the fact that there is the potential that the RBA will hike rates next week and that US Q4 GDP is positive for the global recovery outlook. The AUD was pressured by concern about the impact of tightening in China and uncertainty about government efforts to impose new regulations and taxes on banks. In addition India raised its reserve requirements today to 5.7%. The hike in India’s reserve requirement may be another headwind for commodity prices and global growth. Focus turns to Tuesday’s RBA policy meeting. The RBA is widely expected hike rates 25bps to 4%. There is an increased risk that investors may want to take profits and sell the AUD after the RBA announcement.

Next week’s Australian economic calendar includes the February 1st release of Q4 house prices expected at 4.7% compared to 4.2% last month. On February 2nd the RBA will hold a policy meeting and are expected to raise rates 25bps to 4%. On February 3rd December trade balance will be released expected at -1.98bln compared to -1.70bln last month. On February 4th December building approvals will be released along with December retail sales. Building approvals are expected to fall by 2.7%, compared to a 5.9% rise last month and retail sales are expected to rise by 0.6% compared to 1.4% last month.

The technical outlook for the AUD is mixed as the AUD holds above 8800 but is breaking trend line support. Expect AUD support at 8830 the December 28th low with resistance at 9048 the January 28th high.

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US Morning Notes – USD mixed, Fed to end MBS purchases, EUR at 6 mo. low

Here are the latest Financial News:

FX Highlights

• The USD is trading mixed with the EUR pressured by Greek fiscal concern and FOMC plan to end MBS purchases, Greek EU ten year bond spread is at the widest level since Greece adopted the EUR in 2001, China’s central bank said the nation should not buy Greece’s debt, Fitch warns of possible downgrade of Portugal’s debt rating, GBP continues to outperform trading at a five-month high versus the EUR as UK Chancellor Darling touts deficit reduction, commodity currencies trade higher tracking firmer equity market trade and hawkish outlook from the RBNZ, JPY lower pressured by improving risk appetite as equities rally in reaction to President Obama’s tax cut proposals to boost the US economy and the Feds upgrade of its outlook for the US recovery, the FOMC January statement says the US economy is in recovery and the Fed is preparing for the end of extraordinary monetary stimulus
• Focus turns to today’s release of US jobless claims, durable goods and Bernanke’s confirmation hearing
• Japan’s retail sales declined by 1.2%, JPY lower
• EU January economic sentiment improves to 95.7 from 94.1, a reading of 92.4 was expected, German unemployment rate rose 0.1% to 8.2% in January, EUR lower
• UK Chancellor Darling says the UK has a plan to halve its deficit over the next four years and the UK has the biggest deficit reduction plan amongst the industrialized nations, GBP higher
• RBNZ says it plans to start removing stimulus around mid year
• FOMC January policy statement was slightly more upbeat about the economy, said the recovery will likely be moderate and it will allow some emergency lending programs to expire
• Mortgage applications declined by 10.9% last week
• PBOC official Zhu warns of risks of US carry trades
• US equity markets set to open higher, European equities 0.5% lower, Nikkei closed 162 points higher

Upcoming Events

• US - Thursday, initial jobless claims for week ending 1/23 will be released expected at 450k compared to 482k last week along with December durable goods expected at 2% compared to 0.2% last month
• CAN - Thursday, no major data is due for release in Canada today

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US Morning Notes – USD and JPY higher supported by risk aversion

Here are the latest Financial News:

FX Highlights

• The USD and JPY are trading higher ahead of today’s FOMC meeting as risk remains the main driver for FX trade, concern about tightening of monetary policy in China, threat of a downgrade of Japan’s bond rating, escalating tensions between North and South Korea and disappointment in Portugal’s latest budget plans sparked safe haven demand for USD, EUR was pressured by report of a decline in German CPI and a statement from Luxembourg’s PM Juncker that the EUR is overvalued and divergences in the regions may threaten its cohesion, Junker’s comments increase speculation about a possible threat of a breakup of European monetary Union, GBP traded higher supported by hawkish comments from the BOE’s Sentance that it will be difficult for the BOE to keep inflation on target, Sentance’ comments suggest that the BOE may be prepared to pause its asset purchase plan, GBP gains were limited by report of weak UK retail sales, commodity currencies trade lower pressured by concern about the global recovery
• Focus turns to today’s release of US new home sales, FOMC policy decision and the State of the Union address
• North Korea fired artillery rounds into waters near South Korea
• Japan’s December trade surplus narrows to ¥545.3bln, exports rose by 12.1% and imports declined by 5.5%, JPY higher
• Australia’s Q4 CPI rose by 0.6%, Westpac leading index +7.6%, AUD lower
• UK CBI retail sales at -8 compared to +13 last month, BOE Sentence says tightening depends on strength of the recovery, GBP mixed
• German CPI declined by 0.4% compared to a 0.9% rise in December, the German government raised its 2010 growth forecast to 1.4% from 1.2%, ECB’s Weber says interest rates are appropriate and the ECB may take steps to further normalize monetary policy as the economy improves, EUR lower
• President Obama is expected to propose a three year freeze on discretionary spending
• CBO forecasts a $1.35trln deficit for 2010 and expects muted growth in the next few years, says government finances on unsustainable path
• The IMF raised its global growth outlook for 2010 to 3.9% from 3.1% and to 4.3% for 2011 and expects commodity prices to rise supported by improving demand
• US equity markets set to open mixed, European equities 0.25% lower, Nikkei closed 73 points lower

Upcoming Events

• US - Wednesday, new home sales for December will be released expected at 370k compared to 355k last month, the FOMC concludes a two-day policy meeting and President Obama will give the State of the Union address Wednesday night
• CAN - Wednesday, no major data is due for release in Canada today

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US Morning Notes – USD higher, weak UK GDP, China hikes reserve ratios

Here are the latest Financial News:

FX Highlights

• The USD is trading higher in reaction to weaker equity markets, declining commodity prices and weaker than expected UK Q4 GDP, equity markets were pressured by report that some Chinese banks have been ordered to hike reserve ratios, tighter monetary policy in China sparked risk aversion and demand for USD and JPY, JPY trades higher despite S&P cut of Japan’s bond outlook to negative because of the nations rising debt load, Japan’s Finance Ministry pledged fiscal discipline after the ratings downgrade, German IFO beats forecasts but the EUR is trading lower, EUR/JPY at a nine month low
• Focus turns to today’s release of US Case Shiller home price index and consumer confidence
• UK advanced Q4 GDP rose by 0.1% and declined by 3.2% y/y, December mortgage approvals rose to 45,897 from 44,065 last month, GBP lower
• BOJ leaves monetary policy unchanged as expected, says economy improving but domestic demand remains weak, CPI will likely be higher than forecast at the October policy meeting, Japan’s December corporate service price index falls 1.5%, Japan’s Finance Minister Kan hopes that Japan exits from deflation in 2 to 3 years, JPY higher
• German January IFO improves to 95.8 from 94.6 last month, ECB Stark says the ECB will look on a quarterly basis for the continuation of liquidity operations, EUR lower
• National Federation of Retailers expects sales to rise by 2.5% in 2010
• Fed officials are considering adopting a new benchmark interest rate to replace the one they used for two decades
• US equity markets set to open lower, European equities 0.25% lower, Nikkei closed 178 points lower

Upcoming Events

• US - Tuesday, November Case Shiller home price index will be released expected at -5.1 compared to -7.3 last month along with January consumer confidence expected at 53.5 compared to 52.9 last month
• CAN – Tuesday, no major data is due for release in Canada today

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US Morning Notes – USD and JPY lower, Bernanke likely to be confirmed

Here are the latest Financial News:

FX Highlights

• The USD is trading lower as equity markets rebound and the White House says it expects Fed Chairman Bernanke to be confirmed for second term, surveys in US press suggest that Bernanke will have enough Senate votes to be reconfirmed for a second term as Fed chairman, the Bernanke news helped to lift risk appetite, USD remains vulnerable to concern about the strength of the US recovery and the impact of new banking regulations proposed by President Barack Obama last week, commodity currency supported by statement from Chinese officials that monetary policy will remain loose
• Focus turns to today’s release of US existing home sales which are expected to fall by 9.8% and the Dallas Fed manufacturing activity index expected to rise by 6%
• Bloomberg reports that the BOJ may be prepared to increase its purchase of government debt and enact more easing to support the Japanese economy and limit JPY strength, JPY lower
  • Australia’s Q4 final goods PPI falls by 0.4%, AUD higher
• EU November industrial orders rose by 2.7%, German GFK February consumer sentiment at 3.2, ECB’s Nowotny says ECB has steady hand approach on withdrawal of its liquidity, demand for Greek bonds said to be strong, EUR higher
• BOE officials indicate that its emergency bond purchase plan will be under review, trade awaits Tuesday’s UK advance Q4 GDP, GBP higher
• SNB Chairman Hildebrand says the SNB will continue to prevent excessive appreciation of the CHF, CHF higher
• Goldman reports that China’s economy may surpass Japan’s
• CFTC commitment of traders for last week showed that speculators increased short positions in the USD
• US equity markets set to open higher, European equities mixed, Nikkei closed 78 points lower

Upcoming Events

US - Monday, December existing home sales will be released expected at 5.90mln units compared to 6.54mln units last month along with the Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index

CAN - Monday, no major data is due for release in Canada today

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US Morning Notes – New Bank Reform Leads to Increased Market Volatility USD Price Fluctuates

Here are the latest Financial News:

FX Highlights

• Equity Indexes lose ground in Europe, while stock futures in the US point to a lower open. Financial Markets were roiled by a surprising announcement from President Obama looking to limit bank size and restrict risk taking practices within US banks. The announcement calls for banks not to engage in proprietary trading, private equity, and or hedge fund investing with principal capital. For some financial institutions like UBS prop trading accounts for a minimal amount of revenue, however firms like Goldman Sachs derive a large component of their profit from these operations. Investors sold off shares in fear that the new reform would limit profitability and reduce overall market liquidity. The initial reaction for the USD was negative, creating room for the Euro, Gbp, and other major currency pairs to recover following a recent selloff. The easing in dollar strength was short lived, causing majors like the Gbp, Eur, and Cad to decline sharply
• In Europe, UK retail sales rose 0.3% an increase that did not meet expectations of a 1.1% gain by a Bloomberg News Survey. These figures may serve as a reflection in consumers tightening spending habits and may foreshadow concerns regarding the UK GDP figure set to be released next week. UK GDP is expected to have increased 0.4% in the fourth quarter
• The Eurozone economy received some positive news with French business confidence rising to 92 versus 88 in the prior quarter and an estimate of 90 by Bloomberg News Survey. The French economy has shown some resilience with a modest 0.3% growth rate in the last two quarters. The Finance Ministry raised its 2010 growth forecast to 1.4% creating a clear distinction within the EU of countries with stabilizing economic conditions versus some of the other struggling members
• US investors are preoccupied with the “Volcker Rule” calling for a clear division between traditional bank services and proprietary trading activity. Some are calling this reform a return of the “Glass Steagall Act” which required a separation between consumer/commercial banking and capital markets businesses. Policymakers in the US are calling for a level playing field from a regulatory perspective, placing pressure on other G20 members to adopt similar policy. The UK has expressed some agreement with the Obama’s plan, but other leaders like Angela Merkel of Germany prefer a unified plan involving the input of all G20 countries as opposed to unilateral policies

Upcoming Events:

• CA: Canada Budget Balance
• US: Existing Home Sales

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Daily Forex Outlook – Obama Bank Plan Creates Havoc

Here are the latest Financial News:

Obama Bank Plan Create Havoc

CURRENCY TRADING SUMMARY -22^nd January (00:30GMT)

U.S. Dollar Trading (USD) Gained against risk currencies as stocks crashed but was very volatile against the EUR/USD and USD/JPY as the market digested Obama’s Bank regulation plan. The plans seek to limit the size and risk of Banks so as to make sure none are ‘too big to fail’. Weekly Jobless claims were 482k vs. 440k forecast. DJIA -213 points closing at 10603, S&P -12 points closing at 1138 and NASDAQ -29 points closing at 2291.

The Euro (EUR) broke through to fresh 5 month lows as risk aversion spiked higher and EUR/JPY selling pushed the major lower. Obama’s Bank Plan was taken as USD negative by the market and the EUR/USD reclaimed the 1.4100 level. Helping the rebound was EUR/GBP buying which pared recent heavy losses. Overall the EUR/USD traded with a low of 1.4026 and a high of 1.4145 before closing at 1.4090. Looking ahead, November Industrial Orders forecast at 0.5% vs. -2.2% previously.

The Japanese Yen (JPY) gained strength across the board as risk aversion and USD weakness provided the perfect storm. USD/JPY traded at 1 month lows near the key Y90 level. AUD/JPY fell over 2 yen and EUR/JPY nears 9 month lows at Y127. Overall the USDJPY traded with a low of 89.85 and a high of 91.89 before closing the day around 90.30 in the New York session.

The Sterling (GBP) broke down on aggressive selling in Europe before bouncing around the 1.6200 level. GBP/JPY came under heavy selling pressure as stocks dropped and could hurt threaten the recent cable rally. January CBI Order Expectations forecast at -39 vs. -39 previously. Overall the GBP/USD traded with a low of 1.6123 and a high of 1.6314 before closing the day at 1.6200 in the New York session. Looking ahead, December Retail Sales are forecast at 1.1% vs. -0.3% previously.

The Australian Dollar (AUD) gained strength briefly in Asia as Chinese GDP came in strong as expected but this proved short lived as speculation of tightening Chinese Monetary Policy limited gains. Stock losses in the US added to the downside pressure and the key 0.9000 level has come back into view. Overall the AUD/USD traded with a low of 0.8991 and a high of 0.9148 before closing the US session at 0.9020. Q4 Export Prices fell -1.7% vs. -3% forecast.

Oil & Gold (XAU) slumped through $1100 support and came under heavy selling pressure as large stops were hit. Overall trading with a low of USD$1088 and high of USD$1118 before ending the New York session at USD$1118 an ounce. Crude Oil continued to be pressured lower in the risk off environment. Crude Oil was down -$0.77 ending the New York session at $77.00.

TECHNICAL COMMENTARY

Currency	Sup 2	Sup 1	Spot	Res 1	Res 2
EUR/USD	1.3964	1.4008	1.4100	1.4218	1.4414
USD/JPY	89.29	90.00	90.05	91.87	92.05
GBP/USD	1.6038	1.6126	1.6180	1.6312	1.6372
AUD/USD	0.8902	0.8939	0.9000	0.9240	0.9280
XAU/USD	1086.00	1088	1095.00	1141	1146.00
OIL/USD	74.00	75.00	77.00	78.00	80.00

Euro – 1.4100

Initial support at 1.4008 (Jul 29 low) followed by 1.3964 (Jul 15 low). Initial resistance is now located at 1.4218 (Dec 22 high) followed by 1.4414 (Jan 19 high)

Yen – 90.05

Initial support is located at 90.00 (Big figure support) followed by 89.30 (50% retracement of 84.86 – 93.75). Initial resistance is now at 91.87 (Jan 21 high) followed by 92.05 (Jan 14 high).

Pound – 1.6180

Initial support at 1.6126 (Jan 21 low) followed by 1.6137 (Jan 13 low). Initial resistance is now at 1.6312 (Jan 21 high) followed by 1.6372 (Jan 20 high).

Australian Dollar – 0.9000

Initial support at 0.8939 (Jan 21 low) followed by the 0.8902 (Dec 30 low). Initial resistance is now at 0.9243 (Jan 20 high) followed by 0.9280 (Jan 18 high).

Gold – 1095

Initial support at 1088 (Jan 21 low) followed by 1086 (Dec 30 low). Initial resistance is now at 1141 (Jan 20 high) followed by 1146 (Jan 14 high).

Oil – 77.00

Initial support at 75.00 (Intraday support) followed by 74.00 (Intraday Support). Initial resistance is now at 78.00 (Intraday Resistance) followed by 80.00 (Intraday Resistance).

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EU Morning Report – Chinas year on year growth was 10.7% and inflation at 1. …

Here are the latest Financial News:

Chinas year on year growth was 10.7% and inflation at 1.9% speculation mounts on Chinese Central Bank rate hikes!

• The USD strengthened in yesterdays US trading session for the 5^th trading day in a row. The 200 day moving average which was broken yesterday continued to drive system traders to aggressively sell and target the myriad of stop orders placed in the area coupled with mounting concerns over Greece’s deficit continued to weigh on the EURUSD. In the Asian trading session the USD strengthened as China released its year on year growth figures, an outstanding 10.7% GDP and a 1.9% Inflation rate can only justify Chinas credit tightening measures and speculation is mounting also that Chinas Central bank will begin to hike interest rates. Housing starts fell by 4% in December whilst the PPI rose less than expected by 0.2%. EURUSD price action yesterday was between 1.4226 – 1.4065.
• The Yen yesterday started off the session strong following a soft PPI report, weak Morgan Stanley earnings and US housing data. In the Asian session however the USDJPY soared on China announcing its latest GDP and inflation figures which reduced demand as a safe haven for the currency. USDJPY is increasingly becoming more and more correlated to the SP500 and sentiment is building that the pair will become the 2010 carry trade vehicle. Price action for the USDJPY was between 90.77-91.60.
• The GBPUSD weakened yesterday also as sentiment was carried over from BoE King’s dovish comments on Tuesday. The strong dollar also helped drag the pair down as it was generally strong across the board. GBPUSD Price action yesterday was between 1.6369 – 1.6241.
• Today’s financial calendar includes Germany’s PMI Manufacturing for January, UK Public sector borrowing figures, US jobless claims, Philadelphia Fed and Crude Oil inventories.

Currency to watch out for: EURUSD & USDJPY

• The EURUSD pivot point is at 1.4175 with a preference to enter into short positions at 1.4165
• The USDJPY pivot point is at 91.15 with a preference to enter into long positions at 91.20

Today’s calendar and market movers:

• Germany PMI Manufacturing for January expected at 52.9
• UK Public Sector Net Borrowing expected GBP18.75 bln
• UK CBI Orders for January expected at -37
• US Initial Jobless claims for the week expected at 440K
• US Philadelphia Fed for January expected at 18
• US Crude Oil Inventories for the week expected at 2.2mln

Now onto Stocks:

• US equities were closed negative yesterday day with the DJIA and the SP500 closing -1.14% and -1.06% respectively.  The European burses were negative yesterday with the FTSE down -1.67% the DAX and the CAC closing negative at -2.09% and -2.01% respectively.  The NIKEI and the HSI at the time of righting is 1.22 % and -1.25% respectively.

My recommended Forex Broker is Forex Yard.

EU Morning Report – The EURO weakens across the board on further Greece fears and the …

Here are the latest Financial News:

The EURO weakens across the board on further Greece fears and the Kraft-Cadbury acquisition!

• The USD had a spectacular day yesterday during the US session as the European session continued to feel nervous about Greece’s fiscal position coupled with a disappointing German Zew report. The EURUSD subsequently got sold off and fell to lows of 1.4262. In the Asian session the EURUSD continued to slide amongst concerns that China will withdraw some of its stimulus programs and that it will freeze credit availability for the remainder of January. The EURUSD move was further exaggerated as model funds spotted that the EURUSD closed below the 200 day moving average at 1.4290 and aggressively sold the pair all the way to 1.4164.
• USDJPY started the US session on weak footing as macro traders were reported sellers of the pair at 91.00 area. As the session moved on the pair failed to make any new lows and subsequently tracked US equities and yields as they traded higher on the back of Citibank news and the successful Cadbury-Kraft deal. The USDJPY however failed to build strong upside momentum as the massive liquidation of EURJPY positions gave strength to the Japanese Yen. The negative European sentiment due to Greece and the negative Asian sentiment due to China’s tightening has been the main cause for strength in the Yen and any developments on these two stories will likely drive future YEN direction. USDJPY high was 91.35 and the low 90.35.
• The GBPUSD was a big gainer as the European burses got started mainly on the Cadbury-Kraft deal. The deal implies a sale of 13 billion EURGBP! Furthermore to this UK CPI (Inflation) reports came in very strong pushing the pair to 1.5468 highs on inflation fears. As the session went on BoE King in a speech said that the QE ”discussion’ is not over, coupled with the strong USD from Euro sales the GBPUSD slid back down to 1.6280.
• Today the attention in the market will be on a myriad of earning reports. Some of these reports will include, Bank of America, Morgan Stanley, Bank of New York Mellon, Wells Fargo and Starbucks. From the financial calendar focus will be on ILO employment in the UK, housing starts and PPI from the US.

Currency to watch out for: EURUSD & USDJPY

• The EURUSD pivot point is at 1.4275 with a preference to enter into short positions at 1.4265
• The USDJPY pivot point is at 90.80 with a preference to enter into long positions at 90.85

Today’s calendar and market movers:

• UK ILO Unemployment expected to increase to 8% from 7.9%
• Canada CPI month on month for December expected to fall by -0.2%
• US Housing Starts for December expected to be 589,000 units.
• US PPI for December expected to rise by 0.1%

Now onto Stocks:

• US equities were closed positive yesterday day with the DJIA and the SP500 closing 1.09% and 1.25% respectively.  The European burses were possitive yesterday with the FTSE up 0.34% the DAX and the CAC closing positive at 0.98% and 0.91% respectively.  The NIKEI and the HSI at the time of righting is -0.25 % and -2.07% respectively.

My recommended Forex Broker is Forex Yard.

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